Walter's Sunday Nuggets 🤖

These are Walter’s Sunday Nuggets featuring:

• A compilation of recommended reading for the serious football fan/fantasy player

• A summary of important news from this week to be aware of

• Best and worst picks from the WalterPicks 32-Person Creator League draft

📚 Recommended Reading 

WalterPicks YouTube Team Previews for Fantasy:

AFC North Teams Released so Far:

• Bengals

• Ravens

• Steelers

🏈 The Newsroom

The Big Stuff

Terry McLaurin’s quest for a new contract has officially led to a trade request. The market still expects McLaurin to remain with the Commanders, as he is a heavy favorite to stay put in most betting markets. And the Commanders have tons of incentive to keep him with a shallow room a pass-catchers behind him and star QB Jayden Daniels only in in the second year of his rookie contract. IF McLaurin is moved, it is highly unlikely it will be to a situation with an environment as fantasy friendly for him as Washington.

Terry McLaurin trade odds (via DraftKings)

• Commanders -250

• Patriots +450

• Raiders +500

• Titans +1100

• Chargers +1100

• Jets +1300

• Browns +1400

• Steelers +1500

• Cardinals +1600

• Seahawks +2500

While to possibility of a trade lowers his floor slightly, we are hesitant to adjust any projections for him until there is more signal for change.

Ravens TE Isiah Likely confirmed Friday that he underfoot surgery to repair a fracture in his foot. Early estimates expect him to miss about 6 weeks, putting him on a timeline to return somewhere around Week 1-2. This could potentially raise the target shares of other Ravens pass catchers early in the season and send Likely down draft boards. We will be closely monitoring for more updates on his return timeline.

Other Notes

• TE Jake Ferguson signed an extension with the Cowboys for 4 years, $52 million. He had the most targets in the league last season without a touchdown and is a strong positive regression candidate.

• WR Courtland Sutton signed an extension with the Broncos for 4 years, $92 million.

• 49ers WR Jauan Jennings aggravated a calf injury (the same calf he injured last season) and currently has no timetable for his return. This will open the door for receivers like Russell Gage, Isiah Neyor, and the recently signed Andy Isabella to get more reps.

• The Titans waived WR Treylon Burks who is expected to miss the entire 2025 season with a shoulder injury.

• Vikings RBs Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason will have a “relatively equal” workload split according to ESPN’s Kevin Seifert. We heard similar things about the RB core of Aaron Jones/Ty Chandler last season and that ended up meaning very little as far as fantasy relevance. Still reports about Jordan Mason have been extremely positive and he needs to be on the fantasy radar.

• The Bengals have cut RB Zack Moss. Tahj Brooks and Samaje Perine will likely be the primary backups for Chase Brown.

• The Bengals signed TE Noah Fant to a one-year deal adding to a TE room with Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample.

• Cowboys LT Tyler Guyton suffered a bone fracture and is looking at 4-6 week recovery - fortunate news after it was feared that he had torn his ACL.

• Cowboys edge Micah Parsons has formally requested a trade in what has become a messy public dispute with the team. If he were to be moved, he is the caliber of player that could significantly shift some defense/matchup projections for fantasy.

• Bills WR Khalil Shakir has a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss 4-5 weeks. This will put him in danger of missing Week 1.

• Giants RB Cam Skattebo is expected to miss some time with a hamstring injury. He is considered day-to-day in practice.

Best and Worst Picks from the WalterPicks 32-Person Creator League Draft 👍👎

Last night was the 5th draft for the insanely competitive WalterPicks 32-Person Creator League Draft. Not only is playing in a league with 32 teams incredibly stressful due to positional scarcity, but everyone in the league is incredibly locked into fantasy football. These drafts tend to have wild differentiations from ADP due to how positional needs develop, and owners need to really have conviction in specific players to execute their strategies.

These are always insane to look at in retrospect and injuries make all analysis incredibly fickle, at least this far out from the season. With some humility for how hard it is to judge these drafts, here are my favorite and least favorite picks from last night:

Favorite Picks:

1. Trey McBride - 1.11 (Ravens.WalterPicks)

Tight ends score two points per reception in this league, making that ones who can consistently garner targets absolute monsters (Travis Kelce had gone in the top-4 picks in each of the last four years of this league). Brock Bowers was taken third overall and in my opinion Ravens.WalterPicks gets a steal here with McBride at 1.11.

The last five weeks of 2024, Trey McBride averaged 11.2 targets per game. This was more than two more than Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers. McBride only being in his third season AND a strong candidate for positive touchdown regression give him potential for even higher heights in 2025, positional scarcity be damned.

2. Devonta Smith - 3.31 (Browns.WalterPicks)

The caution towards the Eagles pass catchers due to their low passing volume may be getting a little bit out of hand. Smith ended up going more than a full round ahead of Tet McMillan, nearly a full round ahead of Xavier Worthy, and behind much less proven options like Rome Odunze and Jerry Jeudy.

Steady production is hard to come by in a league this deep, and adding a WR with a 25%+ target share at pick 95 is terrific value.

3. Dalton Schultz - 5.32 (Jets.WalterPicks)

I would like to reiterate that TEs get 2 points per reception in this league! Dalton Schultz had seven weeks in this league in 2024 where he scored 10+ points. The Texans did very little to give him any competition in the TE room, and his role projects to be largely the same. Him going after players like Kyle Williams, Christian Kirk, and Joshua Palmer feels incredibly strange.

Least Favorite Picks:

1. Patrick Mahomes - 1.14 (Chargers.WalterPicks)

Taking Patrick Mahomes in a vacuum is not necessarily an awful decision, but this was a horrible way to manage the board. Chargers.WalterPicks ended up taking Caleb Williams with his second round pick, meaning he could have opted out of taking Mahomes in the first to the benefit of an ELITE player. CeeDee Lamb was still on the board!

He will have to make some trades to rectify this mistake, but finding partners that would benefit mutually may be difficult.

2. Justin Herbert - 2.11 (Browns.WalterPicks)

While I praised Browns.WalterPicks for snagging Devonta Smith in the 3rd, I did not quite get this one. There were seven QBs Walter had ranked higher than Herbert still on the board at the time. And the ceiling for Herbert in that passing offense is lower than just about all of them. In a league with 32 people, you need to chase high ceiling outcomes to have any kind of shot. Without rushing potential or high passing volume, Herbert certainly does not fit this bill.

3. Rashee Rice - 2.14 (Colts.WalterPicks)

I can totally understand taking a shot on Rashee Rice as he starts to slip in drafts. The volume in a short sample was insane last season, and he looked like a fantasy star. But in a league like this it is incredibly risky to target players likely to miss games, and with a suspension likely looming, Rice is most likely going to leave Colts.WalterPicks out to dry.

The craziest thing about this pick is that Rice was not even falling! Davante Adams and Mike Evans were still on the board.