Potential Busts For 2025 🏈

Analysis from league losers last year and their versions for the 2025 season -- Who is this year's version of C.J. Stroud?

These are 3 players that massively underperformed their draft price in 2024, and some similar players to avoid for this season!

1. Travis Etienne Jr.

What happened in 2024:

Coming off an impressive RB3 fantasy finish in 2023, Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. entered 2024 as a consensus second/third-round pick. But Etienne quickly became one of the season's biggest fantasy disappointments. A frustrating timeshare with Tank Bigsby derailed his season, as he managed just an RB35 finish in PPR formats. Even more concerning, he failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in eight of his final 10 games.

⚠️ Player to be careful of in 2025: Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving isn't likely to crater as dramatically as Etienne did, especially after ranking fifth among all RBs in yards per touch during his strong rookie season. However, there are warning signs that suggest we might be getting too excited about him heading into drafts.

The reality is that Rachaad White isn't going anywhere. Fantasy managers can expect a fairly even split —perhaps a 55/45 or 60/40 split in Irving's favor — which could cap his weekly ceiling. Adding to concern, CBS Sports' Pete Prisco has already suggested the team may limit Irving's workload throughout the season to preserve his 194-pound frame.

While Irving probably won't completely bust like Etienne, the parallels are troubling: a smaller back facing legitimate competition for touches. The similarities suggest he may struggle to live up to his current draft position.

Other Candidates: Joe Mixon, Isiah Pacheco

2. Michael Pittman Jr.

What happened in 2024:

Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman had a generous 34.6 consensus ADP in drafts last year after breaking out with a WR13 PPR finish in 2023. QB play, though, was a huge question mark for Pittman entering 2024. That instability proved to be Pittman's kryptonite, as inconsistent QB play dragged him down to a disappointing WR41 finish. His collapse perfectly illustrated how devastating poor QB play can be for even talented receivers.

⚠️ Player to be careful of in 2025: Chris Olave

New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave isn't being drafted quite as aggressively as Pittman was last year, but the QB concerns are equally valid. The 25-year-old will be catching passes from an uninspiring trio of rookie Tyler Shough, second-year Spencer Rattler, or third-year signal-caller Jake Haener.

None of these options inspire confidence. Shough will inevitably face rookie growing pains, Rattler managed just a 63.4% true completion percentage across seven appearances, and Haener completed fewer than half his passes last season. Making matters worse, Rashid Shaheed continues to flash impressive potential in training camp, potentially eating into Olave's target share.

With so many question marks surrounding New Orleans' passing attack, Walter projects just a WR20 ceiling for Olave—hardly exciting for his current draft cost.

 Other Candidates: Jerry Jeudy, Cooper Kupp

3. C.J. Stroud

What happened in 2024:

The hype surrounding Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud heading into his sophomore season was palpable. After a spectacular rookie campaign, fantasy managers couldn't wait to draft him as the QB5. Unfortunately, Stroud had a down fantasy year, finishing as the QB18 in all formats. His passing efficiency declined noticeably, and his minimal rushing upside made him a weekly lineup headache for fantasy managers who invested early draft capital.

⚠️ Player to be careful of in 2025: Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is riding high after a strong QB4 finish in 2024, but his current QB7 ADP feels too aggressive for a multitude of reasons.

The 30-year-old veteran benefited from tremendous volume last season, ranking top 10 in pass attempts (33.6 per game), passing yards (267.3 per game), and red zone opportunities (1.6 attempts inside the five per game). More importantly, he posted an unsustainable 7.2% touchdown rate that ranked second among all QBs.

Baker Mayfield’s Player Profile in the WalterPicks app

Therefore, regression seems inevitable, especially with offensive coordinator Liam Coen departing for Jacksonville's head coaching position. Mayfield's rushing contributions also remain virtually nonexistent, as he averaged just 19.4 rush yards per game in 2024 (QB19). To finish as a top-5 QB again, he'd need to throw for over 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. Banking on those numbers feels like a risky proposition.

Other Candidates: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff