We found two insane prop values this morning using the WalterPicks Prop Evaluator.
These refresh every minute in the app, so new values are constantly being identified. The content in this email is free, but if you want to help us out please click the link above!
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Stephon Castle Over 0.5 Blocks (+240) - Value +4.0%
Why:
This +240 line on Bet MGM gives this prop incredible Value. Hard Rock and DraftKings both currently have this same line set at +195. Blocks can be frustrating due to opportunities to record them being so situational, but Castle does have 3 in his last two games, and 4 in his last 10.
The 4.0% Value on this one makes it a tremendous bet. In the long run these are the types of bets that create profitability.
Kyle Freeland Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-114) - Value +6.6%
Why:
These are the ones we do it for. This line is simply not priced correctly. Kyle Freeland has failed to record this many outs in all of his last 5 starts, and in 7 of his last 10. He has an abysmal 7.04 ERA to begin the season and today faces a Dodgers offense that is 3rd in runs per game.
Most books have this line set at 15.5 outs at -110 odds, but FanDuel inexplicably has this one at 16.5 and -114! There is no way this one lasts long so get on it soon!
Checking in on our (at the time) Bold Knicks Future:
Knicks to Win the Championship (+800 DraftKings):
At the start of the second round, I recommended putting some money on the Knicks to become NBA Champions at +800. Their statistical case suggested they should be just as live as the Spurs and Thunder. Since writing that up, the Knicks have ripped off 8 straight wins to with the Eastern Conference, and the Thunder and Spurs have suffered several injuries in the first 4 games of their heavyweight Western Conference Finals.
They’re now +210 to win the Finals.
There are opportunities to hedge here (Thunder are currently +110 to win the Finals, and the Spurs are +270) but the Knicks should be live in whatever matchup they get. They have won 11 games in a row, will have a massive rest advantage, and will be entering the Championship round fully healthy.
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