With the 2025 NFL season in the books, we wanted to take a more comprehensive look at Walter's player prop performance!
This article will include:
Record/results filtered for all of the different prop types we wrote up
A summary of key takeaways
ICYMI here is a piece directly from our projections team reflecting on prop performance this season.
Results from 2019-2025:
Overall Winning Percentage: (57.1%)
Change in Units: +211.69
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$4,233.80
$50 Bettor is +$10,584.50
$100 Bettor is +$21,169.00
2025 Final Results:
Overall Record: 129-127 (50.4%)
Change in Units: -11.09
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is -$221.80
$50 Bettor is -$554.50
$100 Bettor is -$1,109.00
Overs vs. Unders
Overs Record: 95-105 (47.5%)
Change in Units: -20.32
Unders Record: 34-22 (60.7%)
Change in Units: +9.23
Prop Record by Position
QB Record: 25-24 (51%)
Change in Units: -1.80
RB Record: 55-49 (52.9%)
Change in Units: -1.01
WR Record: 36-29 (55.4%)
Change in Units: +4.27
TE Record: 12-24 (33.3%)
Change in Units: -12.28
Kicker Record: 1-1 (50%)
Change in Units: -0.28
Prop Record by Prop Type
Receptions: 34-39 (46.6%)
Change in Units: -6.39
Rushing Yards: 26-31 (45.6%)
Change in Units: -8.03
Receiving Yards: 28-26 (51.9%)
Change in Units: -1.71
Rushing Attempts: 15-12 (55.6%)
Change in Units: +1.19
Passing Yards: 10-6 (62.5%)
Change in Units: +2.76
Rushing & Receiving Yards: 6-6 (50%)
Change in Units: -0.82
Passing Attempts: 6-3 (66.7%)
Change in Units: +2.43
Kicking Points: 1-1 (50%)
Change in Units: -0.28
Interceptions Thrown: 1-1 (50%)
Change in Units: -0.05
Passing TDs: 1-1 (50%)
Change in Units: NONE
Anytime TD: 1-0 (100%)
Change in Units: +0.80
Passing Completions: 0-1 (0%)
Change in Units: -1.00
Key Takeaways/Other Notes:
Our most profitable player this season - Texans RB Nick Chubb
TEs killed us - they were the only position group with a win-rate below 50% and lost over 12 units across the entire season.
Unders remain profitable - for the second year in a row we performed better on unders than overs. Writing up more of these will be a point of emphasis next season.
Receptions/Receiving Yards props for WRs fared far better than for RBs/TEs.
QB passing props had a high hit rate in a small sample this season - finding more values like this next season will be a point of emphasis.
Receptions being a losing prop type for us is surprising - we were up 34+ units with this type in the past two seasons. We leaned into our success even more this season with unfortunate results, but this market also had a large number of 1-catch away losses (24.2% in 2025 vs. 15.6% in previous seasons.)
