Every week since 2019 our projections team has identified NFL props that we see as having excellent value, and written up explanations for each of them.

We’ve tracked the performance of every single prop we’ve ever identified (and reported weekly results in emails for the past two seasons.)

For the first time in seven seasons, our picks this year lost money.

If we are going to promote our prop picks when results are good, its important that we also be up front with our audience when we lose. That is what this is, full transparency.

So what do we have to say for ourselves? Why was this year different than previous years? How are we going to get back in the green next season?

Losing stretches are inevitable.

Variance in sports betting is extreme.

Narrow losses happen constantly. The books are excellent at setting lines and the differences between winning and losing are narrow. This season, 24.2% of our losses (30 out of 124) were these 1-stat-away "bad beats," compared to 15.6% in previous years.

Weather, injuries, and officiating created unpredictable swings. We identified multiple props this season that were derailed by unforeseen weather changes (including that Patriots-Broncos blizzard in the AFC Championship game), mid-game injuries, and questionable referee calls. These factors are impossible to project perfectly and dramatically impact game outcomes.

Good process doesn’t always lead to good results. We consistently observed props we identified moving 50-75% in implied probability by game time.

For example:

We identify a WR recording Over 2.5 receptions at -110 as a fantastic value.

By game-time, the books have the line at Over 3.5 receptions at -110.

Our closing line value this season was actually on par with past seasons.

This suggests that like previous seasons we were consistently identifying values before books could adjust, a strong signal for good process. Variance exists in the short-term, but betting lines like this in the long-run is a winning strategy.

The WalterPicks app is not designed for blindly following picks - it's built to make users more informed decision-makers.

Our prop picks represent the projections team consensus. Every pick identified in our projections calls goes through a detailed discussion where we debate the value, consider the matchup, and reach agreement before publication. These are deeply researched opportunities we believe offer edge.

However…

The most successful bettors on our team apply their own lens to the evaluator and bet on additional props. That's exactly how users should approach our tools.

The picks and their write-ups provide:

The evaluator provides:

Few users bet on every single prop pick, and that’s expected.

We always recommend using our prop picks for research and reading the write-ups to better understand the deeper context within the matchup.

Leveraging picks + the evaluator + the player data in the app should make our users the most informed sports bettors out there - and allow them to build a betting strategy that works for them!

This was our first year implementing EV-based modeling and we're building on those learnings in 2026.

We made a significant process change this season by adding expected value calculations into our prop identification methodology. Previously, we identified opportunities purely based on projection discrepancies with the lines. Our new EV approach identifies opportunities based on how lines are priced across 15+ books. It relies on a high volume of bets that have edge value while prop picks are inherently low volume because they require so much research.

Every year is a learning year. We're adjusting to how the picks process adapts to our new modeling approach while maintaining the deep research and discussion that makes our picks valuable.

Improvements Coming for 2026:

Alt lines are coming to the app. We're adding alternative lines across all prop markets, significantly expanding the opportunities we can identify.

Leaning more on yardage lines than counting stats. Counting stats (receptions, carries etc.) are inherently more volatile than yardage lines (receiving yards, rushing yards etc.) 43% of our picks in 2025 were counting stats, much higher than the 21% in 2024. The team will explore writing up more yardage lines, a prop type we’ve had more success with in the past.

We are going to me more aggressive with unders. We were profitable on unders this season (62% win rate, +10 units), but wrote up far more overs because our projections skewed more toward player opportunity than betting markets.

Betting-focused projections are being prioritized. Fantasy projections optimize for average outcomes and ceiling scenarios. Betting markets require projecting the exact percentage of time a player exceeds a specific line. We're shifting our projections process to prioritize betting applications, which will improve accuracy on both fronts.

Individual editor picks will complement team consensus. Rather than exclusively publishing team consensus picks, we're exploring a system where individual projections team members can publish their own picks alongside the group selections. This allows for more diverse perspectives and increased volume of high-quality opportunities. Several members of our team had very successful betting seasons, and we want to deliver more of their insights to our audience (this is already happening in Discord).

Betting guides are coming soon. Unit sizing and proper bankroll management don't just help you win more when you're winning - they help you lose less when you're losing. Our content team is developing comprehensive betting guides covering topics like unit sizing, bankroll strategy, and prop-specific betting approaches.

While we are disappointed with the result of the prop picks overall this season, stretches like this are inevitable.

Sports betting is extremely difficult.

We are still confident in our process.

We have a clear vision for how we will continue to improve our process in 2026.

If you’ve read this far we’d love to know which guides you’d be most interested in seeing first: