🏈 Week 8 Thursday Night Football Preview + NBA Prop

With the NBA kicking off its season, now is the best time to start using the player prop evaluator in the WalterPicks app. You are able to filter the best NBA bets of the day by using WalterPicks’ +EV (positive expected value) modeling system. You can see what bets and what betting platforms give you the best edge.

To see +EV values for every prop, you can look in the NBA prop evaluator in the WalterPicks App

One NBA Prop We Love For Thursday Night:

Prop: Chet Holmgren UNDER 18.5 points (-115 ESPN Bet)

Reasoning: Although Chet Holmgren went over this line in Tuesday’s season opener against the Houston Rockets, he scored under 18 points in five of the seven games against the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals. With a slight 1.7% EV Edge at ESPN Bet, this is a bet worth taking on Thursday night.

Walter projects Holmgren for just 17.5 points in this matchup.

Thursday Night Football Preview

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Time: 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

Spread: LAC -2

Total: 44.5

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Week 8 Sleepers and Fades

We're focusing on the borderline players who could make or break your Week 8 lineup. Last week, we recommended starting Jaylen Warren, who went on to rush for a season-high 127 yards en route to an RB7 PPR fantasy finish.

So, let’s look at some fringe players and decide whether they should be in fantasy lineups or not in Week 8.

START: TE Oronde Gadsden II

Los Angeles Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden II has come out of nowhere to be a viable TE1 option. He caught seven passes for 68 yards in Week 6 and then had a career performance last week by catching seven passes for 164 yards and one touchdown. More importantly, Gadsden has a 75% route rate over the last two weeks.

For that reason, he is a strong TE1 start in Week 8. He has seen 17 targets over the past two games, and Minnesota ranks 20th in receptions allowed per game to opposing TEs. Considering the Vikings allowed over 18 PPR fantasy points to David Njoku a few weeks ago, Gadsden will be a nice option for Thursday.

Walter's Rank: TE9

START: RB Kimani Vidal

Los Angeles Chargers RB Kimani Vidal had a rough fantasy performance last week against the Colts. He ran nine times for only 20 yards and finished with just 7.5 PPR fantasy points. However, Vidal is in a much better spot heading into this week's game against the Vikings.

Minnesota has given up the ninth-most rushing yards per game through seven weeks, and this front seven has allowed big rushing days to Quinshon Judkins (110 yards), Kenneth Gainwell (99 yards), and Bijan Robinson (143 yards) this season. With Hassan Haskins trending toward missing this contest, Vidal should see enough opportunities to be an RB2 play.

Walter's Rank: RB17

SIT: TE T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson has been a slightly better fantasy option with Carson Wentz under center. He has caught at least five passes in three of Wentz's four starts. However, Hockenson will be a riskier TE1 play this week against the Chargers.

Los Angeles has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points, fifth-fewest receptions, and sixth-fewest receiving yards to opposing TEs this season. On top of that, only two TEs have finished top-12 at the position against this secondary. So, Hockenson comes in as a lower-end TE1.

Walter's Rank: TE11

SIT: WR Quentin Johnston

After a fantastic start to the year for Chargers WR Quentin Johnston, he has definitely cooled off in recent weeks. He scored just 6.9 PPR fantasy points in Week 5 and then only totaled 11 PPR fantasy points in his most recent game. Therefore, he was already a riskier option coming into the week.

Now you have to add in the fact that he has a very tough matchup on the outside against Isaiah Rodgers. Given that the Vikings have allowed the fewest receptions and fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this year, Johnston is harder to trust as a WR3 this week.

Walter's Rank: WR31

Things to Watch Closely For Fantasy:

• Chargers WRs: Who leads the WR room in target share?

• Oronde Gadsden: Can he be a solid TE1 option moving forward?

• Aaron Jones’ Usage: If he returns, what does his workload look like?

Free TNF Prop Pick

Prop: Justin Jefferson OVER 5.5 receptions (-119 on PrizePicks)

Reasoning: Justin Jefferson has gone over this line in two of his last three games. He is averaging 6.75 receptions per game in Wentz’s four starts, and the Chargers have allowed the opposing team’s WR1 to total at least six receptions in three straight weeks.

With a 3.0% EV Edge at PrizePicks, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thursday night. Jefferson is projected for 6.3 receptions in our Player Prop Evaluator.

My Final Score Prediction

Winner: Chargers

Spread Winner: Chargers

OVER/UNDER: Over

Prediction: Chargers 24-20

Last week’s recap: We went 1-2 last week by incorrectly guessing the Steelers would win and cover the spread. Fortunately, the over did hit.

Winner Record: 3-4

Spread Winner Record: 3-4

Over/Under Record: 4-3