The Important Ones: Key Week 18 Matchups

Chargers @ Broncos

With the Chargers benching Justin Herbert in this game, and many other starters as well, it appears as though Los Angeles is opting to hand the first seed to Denver, and likely take on the Patriots in the first round of the playoffs. This could prove to be an effective strategy, considering how young the Patriots are, as well as the fact that they defeated fewer teams above .500 than the Giants.

The Broncos have a tendency to play down or up to their opponents, so you never know what could happen. Although, it appears as if the Chargers are opting to take the L as a strategic move, it is also to spare Justin Herbert against a monstrous defensive unit. Los Angeles is feeding Trey Lance to the wolves.

My Prediction: Broncos beat the Chargers in a game that is closer than it should be.

Seahawks @ 49ers

This game is the biggest and most exciting of Week 18 in my opinion. Yes, there are some games that dictate division winners, but this one is a battle between two powerhouses, where the winner gets home field for the entirety of the playoffs (including the Super Bowl if the Niners win), with the loser falling into a road playoff game.

Nobody is benching anybody in this matchup, and both of these teams are firing on all cylinders. The key in this matchup, in my opinion, is how well Brock Purdy can play against one of the truly elite defenses in the NFL. This is the definition of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Did I mention that George Kittle is expected to be back for this game?

My Prediction: The Seahawks win on the road in dramatic fashion.

Steelers @ Ravens

The Steelers had firm control of the AFC North a few short weeks ago. Now, thanks to DK Metcalf getting into an altercation with a fan, Tyler Huntley, and Shedeur Sanders, Week 18 has become a “win and in” for these two NFL playoff mainstays.

Lamar Jackson is trending towards playing in this game, and if he looks good, the Ravens have the potential make some noise in the postseason. The Ravens will rely on comfortable throws for their multi-time MVP, as well as rushing the ball with Derrick Henry to secure the win. On the Pittsburgh side, it is difficult to find avenues with which they will be able to effectively move the ball. Kenneth Gainwell is going to need to have his best game of the season.

While I do not necessarily agree with this decision, it feels as if the losing head coach in this game could be coaching their last game for their respective teams.

My Prediction: The Ravens defeat the Steelers in dominant fashion, riding the Yeti, El Tractorcito, The King, Derrick Henry.

Titans @ Jaguars & Colts @ Texans

The two games are coupled together because they have impacts on each other. They start at the same time, so both the Jaguars and Texans will be trying their best to secure victories.

The Titans have been playing better lately, and I believe they will put up a fight against a Jaguars unit that has been elite as of late. If the Jaguars were to somehow lose, the Texans would only have to beat a Riley Leonard-led Colts team. If these two things happened, the Texans would win the AFC South and become an even more dangerous team.

My Prediction: The Jags squeak out a win against the Titans, winning the AFC South, while the Texans dominate the Colts.

Panthers @ Bucs & Saints @ Falcons

The story of the NFC South in Week 18 is absolutely, unequivocally, astonishingly, and beautifully perfect.

With the Falcons toppling the Rams, the Panthers and Bucs matchup is no longer a “win and in” game. Now, even if the Bucs defeat the Panthers on Saturday, the Falcons beating the Saints would result in the Panthers making the playoffs due to some insane tiebreaker rules. And, the best part of it all, is that the Saints are probably playing better than any of the other teams in the division, at least when measuring consistency in the last month.

My prediction: The Bucs finally get back to being the better version of themselves, defeating the Panthers convincingly. BUT, the Falcons defeat the Saints, clinching an NFC South title for Carolina. Todd Bowles is then fired.

Chiefs @ Raiders & Cowboys @ Giants (The Number 1 Pick Extravaganza)

The number one pick is very likely going to one of the Raiders or Giants. Las Vegas is taking on a Chiefs team that has a lot of incentive to lose this game, which means that matchup will be a grotesque, fascinating watch.

The Giants have lost nine straight matchups with the Cowboys, but Dallas also has some incentive to lose this matchup. It is hard to imagine the Cowboys wanting the Giants securing a top-two pick, one that could result in them acquiring lots of future assets, assuming Oregon QB, Dante Moore, declares for the draft. It is worth noting that if the Giants win this game, they could fall as far as the seventh pick, depending on what else happens. Knowing the Giants, that is the scenario I would expect to see as a fan.

My prediction: The Raiders lose, and the Giants also lose. (The Giants do not beat the Cowboys, it is a fact of life.) Raiders pick first, and the Giants pick second, eventually trading the pick in a weak class.

Players to Watch Closely Before the NFL Playoffs

  • Can Tyler Shough lock up the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award?

  • Drake Maye vs. Matthew Stafford in the final week of their MVP race

  • The Shedeur Sanders and Harold Fannin Jr. connection against the dreadful Bengals defense

  • Can Bijan Robinson break the single-season scrimmage yards record? He needs 255 yards

  • How healthy are the Bears pass-catchers?

  • Trey McBride’s final stat line after having one of the greatest tight end seasons in history

DFS Favorites

These are some of the players Walter recommends prioritizing in your FanDuel and DraftKings lineups.

QB: Jaxson Dart, FD price: $7,100 DK Price: $5,700, is finishing his rookie campaign against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. In Week 17, Mike Kafka called more designed runs for Dart, and if he does more of the same against this defense, the Giants signal caller will be in line for a huge outing.

RB: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, FD Price: $6,000 DK Price: $5,300, is facing the Eagles this week, and it stands to reason that the Commanders want their rookie RB to finish the season strong. The Eagles have not been good against the run, and now most of their backups will be playing, providing Bill with an even better opportunity to succeed.

WR: Courtland Sutton, FD Price: $7,000 DK Price: $5,900, is one of the certainties of this weekend. The Broncos will play him in a matchup against a bare-bones Chargers unit. He has a nice ROI with a good ceiling.

TE: Harold Fannin Jr., FD Price: $6,100 DK Price: $5,000, is one of the best plays this weekend. The Bengals are atrocious against TEs, ranking last against the position. Fannin is going to finish his rookie season strong, and he is going to be very popular for DFS purposes.

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