🏈 Week 12 Thursday Night Football Preview

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Thursday Night Football Preview

Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

Time: 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

Spread: BUF -6

Total: 43.5

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Week 12 Sleepers and Fades

We're focusing on the borderline players who could make or break your Week 12 lineup. Last week, we recommended starting TreVeyon Henderson (32.3 PPR fantasy points) and Stefon Diggs (19.5 PPR fantasy points) and told fantasy managers to sit Hunter Henry (8.5 PPR fantasy points)

So, let’s look at some fringe players and decide whether they should be in fantasy lineups or not in Week 12.

START: RB Woody Marks

Houston Texans RB Woody Marks has fully taken over this backfield. He has played over 65% of the team’s offensive snaps in back-to-back games and has 32 combined carries across the past two weeks. Although he only scored 6.1 PPR fantasy points last week against the Tennessee Titans, look for the rookie to bounce back in Week 12.

The Bills are allowing the second-most fantasy points, second-most rush yards, and the most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing RBs this season. After Sean Tucker just scored 34 PPR fantasy points against this Buffalo defense last week, Marks will be a strong RB2 play on Thursday night.

Walter's Rank: RB18

START: WR Nico Collins

Houston Texans WR Nico Collins has absolutely feasted with Davis Mills under center. In two full games with Mills, Collins has finished as the WR5 (22.6 PPR fantasy points) and the WR4 (24.2 PPR fantasy points). The good news for the Texans’ playmaker is that Mills will start again in Week 12.

Collins should be in all lineups this week. Although the Bills currently rank 10th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing WRs, fantasy managers can’t possibly sit the 26-year-old after back-to-back big fantasy performances.

Walter's Rank: WR15

SIT: WR Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir has really been a consistent WR2/WR3 fantasy option this season. Outside of last week’s 0.7 PPR fantasy point dud, fantasy managers have been able to rely on him in most other weeks. Nevertheless, it might be best to sit Shakir in Week 12.

The Texans have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, and Shakir could have a hard time making an impact in this game. Houston ranks first in fantasy points allowed, third in receptions allowed, and fifth in receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this year. Given that this defense has allowed just two WRs to score above 12 PPR fantasy points since Week 3, the Bills playmaker is a must-sit.

Walter's Rank: WR47

SIT: TE Dalton Schultz

Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz has been a reliable TE1 play in recent weeks. He has finished as a top-10 option in three straight games and has caught at least five passes in seven of the team’s last eight contests. That consistency has helped Schultz become a set-it-and-forget-it option.

However, it’s a good idea to get Schultz out of your lineups for Week 12. The Bills have given up the fewest fantasy points, the fewest receptions, and the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Considering this Buffalo defense has let just one TE finish top-16 at the position this season, Schultz is a sit this week.

Walter's Rank: TE11

Things to Watch Closely For Fantasy:

• James Cook’s snap share

• Jayden Higgins’ Increased Role

• Buffalo Pass Catchers

Free TNF Prop Pick

Prop: Woody Marks OVER 15.5 Rushing Attempts (+100 on BetMGM)

Reasoning: Marks went over this line last week after rushing 18 times against the Titans. He has over a 60% rush share in each of the past two games, and the Bills continue to be suspect on the ground. Buccaneers RBs carried the ball 29 times in Week 11.

With a 15.5% EV Edge at BetMGM, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thursday night. Marks is projected for 19.8 rush attempts in our Player Prop Evaluator.

My Final Score Prediction

Winner: Bills

Spread Winner: Bills

OVER/UNDER: OVER

Prediction: Bills 31-17

Last week’s recap: We went 2-1 last week by correctly guessing the Patriots would win and the under would hit. Unfortunately, the Jets did not cover.

Winner Record: 7-4

Spread Winner Record: 5-6

Over/Under Record: 7-4