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🏈 Week 10 Thursday Night Football Preview

We preview the Thursday night game between the Raiders and Broncos with fantasy starts/sits and a prop Walter loves for the NFL.

Now is the best time to start using the player prop evaluator in the WalterPicks app. You are able to filter the best NFL and NBA bets of the day by using WalterPicks’ +EV (positive expected value) modeling system. You can see what bets and what betting platforms give you the best edge.

To see +EV values for every prop, you can look in the NBA prop evaluator in the WalterPicks App.

Thursday Night Football Preview

Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

Time: 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

Spread: DEN -9

Total: 42.5

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Week 10 Sleepers and Fades

We're focusing on the borderline players who could make or break your Week 10 lineup. Last week, we recommended starting Jaylen Waddle (14.2 PPR fantasy points) and sitting Tua Tagovailoa (9.5 fantasy points).

So, let’s look at some fringe players and decide whether they should be in fantasy lineups or not in Week 10.

START: WR Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos)

Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton only caught one pass last week, but it went for a 30-yard touchdown. Fantasy managers should expect a much better performance from Sutton in Week 10 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points, third-most receptions, and fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this year. That's enough reason to start Sutton as a WR2 this week. He continues to be Bo Nix's go-to deep threat, totaling over 90 receiving air yards in three straight games.

Walter's Rank: WR19

START: QB Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)

Nix has been a consistent QB1 option in recent weeks. He has scored above 19 fantasy points in three straight games while totaling over 35 rushing yards in two of the past three contests.

Las Vegas has allowed a top-12 fantasy quarterback finish in back-to-back weeks and has let four different quarterbacks rush for at least 24 yards in a game since Week 2. The Broncos' signal-caller is ranked higher than Matthew Stafford (QB10), Sam Darnold (QB11), and Daniel Jones (QB12) in our Week 10 QB rankings.

QB Rankings in the WalterPicks app

Walter's Rank: QB9

SIT: WR Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders)

With Jakobi Meyers traded at the deadline, some fantasy managers might want to turn to Tre Tucker. He's now the top wide receiver option in Las Vegas and should see more opportunities in the passing game moving forward.

However, Tucker should be benched in most cases this week. He only saw six targets in his lone game without Meyers (Week 7) this season, and this matchup against the Broncos isn't ideal. Even with Patrick Surtain II missing another week, Denver's secondary has still allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers and has given up just two touchdowns to the position all year.

Walter's Rank: WR42

SIT: RB RJ Harvey (Denver Broncos)

Denver Broncos RB RJ Harvey has been a surprise fantasy option over the last few weeks. He has finished as a top-10 fantasy running back in back-to-back games while scoring over 16 PPR fantasy points in both contests.

But it's best to avoid Harvey in most cases this week. He's still only playing around 30% of the team's offensive snaps, hasn't seen more than 20 snaps in a game since Week 4, and totaled just two carries in last week's win. So, the rookie projects as an RB3 at best this week against the Raiders.

Walter's Rank: RB30

Things to Watch Closely For Fantasy:

  • RJ Harvey’s Usage

  • Tre Tucker’s WR1 Usage

  • Brock Bowers without Jakobi Meyers

Free TNF Prop Pick

Prop: Ashton Jeanty UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+110 on Hard Rock)

Line Shopping in the WalterPicks app

Reasoning: Ashton Jeanty has gone under this line in two of the past three games. He is averaging just 2.2 receptions per game this season, and the Broncos are allowing the fewest receptions per game to opposing RBs.

With a 7.5% EV Edge at Hard Rock, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thursday night. Jeanty is projected for 1.9 receptions in our Player Prop Evaluator.

My Final Score Prediction

Winner: Broncos

Spread Winner: Broncos

OVER/UNDER: OVER

Prediction: Broncos 31-13

Last week’s recap: We went 3-0 last week by correctly guessing the Ravens would win, cover the spread, and the under would hit.

Winner Record: 5-4

Spread Winner Record: 5-4

Over/Under Record: 6-3