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Welcome to Walter’s 2025 Report Card - a series looking back on Walter's pre-draft insights and evaluating their predictive accuracy. The focus will be QBs that Walter ranked higher than consensus rankings in the pre-season - given that correctly differentiating from consensus is how you create edges in fantasy football.
Here are some of the QBs that Walter differed from consensus on in 2025 - for better or for worse!
Biggest QB Win - Drake Maye
Here is what we wrote in our draft guide about the shift in the Patriots as an offensive situation entering the 2025 season:
“The bad situation last year: To put it simply: the Patriots had a bottom-5 offensive line last season and bottom-5 receiving talent. The coaching sucked too, they were fired after a single season.
The massively improved situation this year: If the Bears did not have the biggest offseason offensive improvement, then it had to be the Patriots.
Added multiple new offensive line starters via draft and free agency
Drafted an explosive receiving back in the 2nd round (TreVeyon Henderson) and a deep-threat receiver (Kyle Williams) in the 3rd round of the NFL draft, after signing Stefon Diggs in free agency.
Hired Mike Vrabel as head coach and more importantly (for fantasy) brought back Josh McDaniels who was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots in each of their last 6 super bowl victories.
This entire offense is WAY too cheap in fantasy drafts. People are drafting as though this is the same bottom-5 offense from last season.”
The combination of situational improvement and talent proved to be a fantasy goldmine as Drake Maye surged to an overall QB2 finish. We hope you drafted him this year, because 2025 will likely be the cheapest Maye will ever be in fantasy drafts.
Other winning QBs that Walter liked more than consensus(number of spots Overall Walter Rank was ahead of Overall ADP):
Dak Prescott (5.6) —> Walter Ranking QB8, Finished QB6
Caleb Williams (14.8) —> Walter Ranking QB9, Finished QB5
Brock Purdy (7) —> Walter Ranking QB10, Finished QB24 (QB2 in ppg)
Biggest QB Whiff
Games played in the explosive Miami offense did not prove to be enough for Tua Tagovailoa, in a year that saw him lose all of his fantasy relevance and his job as a starter. The case for taking him in fantasy was simple - he had not finished below the QB13 in points per game since 2021 and he was going at a massive discount due to concerns about his concussions in the previous two seasons.
While he managed to stay on the field, there was a massive regression in his play. And the team seemed to trust him to do less and less in as the season went on. He ranked 33rd amongst QBs in air yards per attempt, 25th in QBR, and 29th in team pass plays per game. He was not useful for fantasy in almost any setting.
Other losing QBs that Walter liked more than consensus(number of spots Overall Walter Rank was ahead of Overall ADP):
Kyler Murray (13) —> Walter Ranking QB7, Finished QB38
Justin Fields (43.8) —> Walter Ranking QB14, Finished QB28
JJ McCarthy (24.5) —> Walter Ranking QB18, Finished QB30
Walter’s Sleeper Wins
Trevor Lawrence
Walter had Trevor Lawrence ranked 48 spots above consensus overall, and 5 spots higher amongst QBs. In his 5th season he finally saw some boom, finishing as the overall QB4 and the QB6 in points per game. Even more impressive, he was the QB1 from Weeks 10-17 outscoring Josh Allen and winning leagues in the process.
Matthew Stafford
Walter had Stafford ranked only one spot above consensus amongst QBs but ranked nearly 40 spots higher overall. An explosion in his passing TD numbers led to a QB5 points per game finish. He dwarfed his 20 passing TDs in 2024 with 46(!), largely boosted by the addition of WR Davante Adams who had 14.
Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold did it again. His move to Seattle was met was skepticism by the fantasy community who had him consensus ranked as the QB28, despite a QB9 finish in Minnesota the year prior. Walter had him ranked one spot higher amongst QBs, and nearly 40 spots higher overall. Steady as he goes, Darnold managed a QB13 overall finish while leading the Seahawks to the one-seed in the NFC.
