🏈 Thursday Night Football Preview

Biggest Risers in our Rest of Season Rankings

• Darius Slayton (+47 spots)

• Quentin Johnston (+37 spots)

• Woody Marks (+32 spots)

• Darren Waller (+27 spots)

• Rashee Rice (+25 spots)

Biggest Fallers in our Rest of Season Rankings

• Calvin Ridley (-35 spots)

• Joe Mixon (-27 spots)

• Mike Evans (-23 spots)

• Tee Higgins (-18 spots)

• Brian Thomas Jr. (-27 spots)

To see the full rest of season rankings, click that link to direct you to the WalterPicks app. There are plenty of notable players trending up and down heading into Week 5.

Thursday Night Football Preview

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

Spread: LAR -7

Total: 46.5

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Week 5 Sleepers and Fades

We're focusing on the borderline players who could make or break your Week 5 lineup. The obvious stars like Puka Nacua and Christian McCaffrey are automatic starts.

So, let’s look at some fringe players and decide whether they should be in fantasy lineups or not in Week 5.

Start: RB Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams continues to operate as the team's lead back, seeing at least 19 touches in three of four games while averaging a solid 4.46 yards per carry. However, backup Blake Corum has been eating into his workload in recent weeks, resulting in Williams playing a season-low 68% of snaps and receiving only 13 carries in last week's close win.

Despite Corum's increased role, Williams remains a solid RB2 option this week. The 49ers just surrendered 124 rushing yards and a touchdown to Travis Etienne in Week 4, marking the second running back in three weeks to rush for over 95 yards against this front seven. Williams should find success in this favorable divisional Thursday night matchup.

Walter's Rank: RB19

Start: WR Davante Adams

While all eyes have been on Puka Nacua through the first four weeks — he currently ranks as the overall WR1 with a league-leading 42 receptions and 503 receiving yards —Los Angeles Rams WR Davante Adams has quietly been producing as a reliable WR2 in his first season with the Rams.

Adams has finished as a top-24 WR in three consecutive weeks and caught a touchdown in each of those games. His usage metrics are also elite with a 26.3% target share, 8.8 targets per game, 91.7% route participation, and 2.3 end-zone targets per game. All four of those metrics currently rank top-12 at the position. So, he’s a confident WR2 start this week.

Walter's Rank: WR16

Sit: All 49ers WRs

The 49ers’ receiving corps is dealing with multiple injuries heading into Thursday night. Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (ankle/ribs) are both banged up and will miss this contest. QB Brock Purdy will also miss this game due to a toe injury. As a result, you shouldn’t be starting new WR1 Kendrick Bourne or new WR2 Demarcus Robinson.

The Rams’ defense has been stout against receivers this season, allowing just two WRs to score above 16 PPR points through four weeks. This secondary has also only allowed one WR (A.J. Brown) to exceed 60 receiving yards in a game this year. Given the injury concerns and difficult matchup, it's best to avoid all 49ers receivers this week.

Sit: QB Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 375 yards and three touchdowns en route to a QB2 fantasy finish. Nevertheless, he's more of a start in two-QB or Superflex leagues this week rather than a confident one-QB league start.

San Francisco has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points and fifth-fewest passing yards to QBs this season, and only one QB has topped 15 fantasy points against them. Additionally, the Rams being seven-point favorites in this game suggests they may lean on their rushing attack more than usual. So, look elsewhere in one-QB formats.

Walter's Rank: QB18

Things to Watch Closely For Fantasy:

• Blame Corum’s involvement: How much does it hurt Williams?

• Matthew Stafford’s value: Can we trust him as a QB1 rest of season?

• 49ers WRs: Who’s playing and how much?

Free TNF Prop Pick

Prop: Christian McCaffrey OVER 15.5 rushing attempts (-118 on BetMGM)

Reasoning: Christian McCaffrey has gone over this line in three of four games this season, and three straight RBs have totaled over 16 rush attempts against this Rams defense. McCaffrey also has a whopping 65.1% rush share, which means he should see enough opportunities on the ground to hit the over.

With a 7.2% EV Edge at BetMGM, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thursday night. McCaffrey is projected for 17.3 rush attempts in our Player Prop Evaluator.

My Final Score Prediction

Winner: Rams

Spread Winner: Rams

OVER/UNDER: Under

Prediction: Rams 27-17

Last week’s recap: We went 1-2 last week by incorrectly guessing the Cardinals would win and cover the spread. However, we did get the over/under right for the first time this season.

Winner Record: 3-1

Spread Winner Record: 3-1

Over/Under Record: 1-3