🏈 Thanksgiving Day Mega-Preview

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Thanksgiving Day Games Preview

Game 1: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Time: 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Spread: DET -2.5

Total: 49

Game 2: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys

Time: 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS/Paramount+

Spread: KC -3.5

Total: 51.5

Game 3: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Time: 8:20 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC/Peacock

Spread: BAL -7

Total: 51.5

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Week 13 Sleepers and Fades

We're focusing on the borderline players who could make or break your Week 13 lineup. The must-start players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Ja’Marr Chase, Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry should continue to be in all lineups.

So, let’s look at some fringe players in all three Thanksgiving Day games and decide whether they should be in fantasy lineups or not in Week 13.

Packers vs. Lions Start’Em & Sit’Em (+ NFL Prop)

START: WR Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson has emerged as a reliable option in this offense over the past few weeks. He caught four passes for 46 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 and then caught a team-high five passes for 49 yards in last week’s win.

Detroit has given up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs while allowing the second-most touchdowns to the position. Given that Watson is coming off a season-high seven-target game in Week 12, fantasy managers can trust him in most 12-plus team leagues this week (assuming Jayden Reed is still out).

Walter's Rank: WR31

SIT: QB Jared Goff

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff hasn’t been the most consistent fantasy option this season. He has finished outside the top-12 at the QB position in four of his past six games, and his 17.8 fantasy points per game rank as the QB15 on the year.

Unfortunately, things don’t get easier for him in Week 13. The Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points and the fifth-fewest passing yards per yard to opposing QBs this season. Green Bay has also let only one QB finish as a top-12 fantasy option since Week 5. Goff is a QB2 play and should not be started in 1-QB leagues.

Walter's Rank: QB15

Free TNF Prop Pick

Prop: Romeo Doubs UNDER 3.5 Receptions (+120 on ESPN Bet)

Reasoning: Romeo Doubs has gone under line in two of the last three weeks. He has run 20 routes or fewer in three straight games, and the Packers continue to prioritize the run with Jordan Love dealing with a left shoulder injury.

With a 4.7% EV Edge at ESPN Bet, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thanksgiving. Doubs is projected for 2.8 receptions in our Player Prop Evaluator.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Start’Em & Sit’Em (+ NFL Prop)

START: QB Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has had a few rough fantasy performances in a row. He has finished outside the top-10 at the QB position in three straight games and has thrown just one passing touchdown since Week 9. However, Mahomes will be a must-start QB1 against the Cowboys in Week 13.

Dallas has given up the most fantasy points, most passing touchdowns, second-most passing yards, and third-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. They have allowed a top-10 fantasy QB finish in three of the past four games. Mahomes should be in all fantasy lineups.

Walter's Rank: QB2

SIT: TE Jake Ferguson

With Lamb and Pickens seeing most of the targets in Dallas’ offense, Jake Ferguson has taken a backseat in the passing attack. Still, he has finished as a top-10 fantasy TE in back-to-back weeks. For Week 13, though, Ferguson will be a riskier TE1 play against the Chiefs.

Kansas City has been one of the best defenses against fantasy TEs this year, holding the position to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. With only two TEs finishing as top-12 options against this Chiefs defense through 12 weeks, Ferguson will be harder to trust in most formats. WalterPicks has TEs like Dalton Schultz (TE5) and Kyle Pitts (TE7) ranked above him this week.

Walter's Rank: TE11

Free Prop Pick

Prop: Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 Receptions (+106 on FanDuel)

Reasoning: Rashee Rice has gone over this line in three of his five games this year. He just caught eight passes in last week’s victory and has seen at least nine targets in four of five contests. His recent volume should help him reach over 6.5 receptions on Thanksgiving.

With a 12% EV Edge at FanDuel, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thursday afternoon. Rice is projected for 7.9 receptions in our Player Prop Evaluator.

Bengals vs. Ravens Start’Em & Sit’Em (+ NFL Prop)

START: TE Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews has been a very touchdown-dependent option at the position this season. He has caught three passes or fewer in five straight games and hasn’t topped over 40 receiving yards since Week 3. Nevertheless, Andrews should be considered strongly in Week 13.

The Bengals have been historically bad against TEs this year, ranking 32nd in fantasy points allowed, receptions allowed, receiving yards allowed, and receiving touchdowns allowed to the position. After Hunter Henry just finished as the overall TE1 last week (24.5 PPR fantasy points), Andrews should be in most fantasy lineups this week.

Walter's Rank: TE6

SIT: WR Andrei Iosivas

Some fantasy managers might be considering Andrei Iosivas with Tee Higgins (concussion) officially ruled out and Joe Burrow expected to return. Last week, Iosivas totaled four catches for 61 yards against the Patriots without Chase. However, most should have better WR options in Week 13. With no teams on bye, Iosivas is ranked very low in our weekly rankings.

Likely available options we have ranked over Iosivas include Jayden Higgins (WR29), John Metchie III (WR30), and Isaiah Hodgins (WR39).

Walter's Rank: WR42

Free TNF Prop Pick

Prop: Derrick Henry OVER 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-119 on PrizePicks)

Reasoning: Henry has gone over this line in six straight games, which included a 21-carry effort in last week’s win over the Jets. The Bengals have allowed the third-most rushing attempts to the RB position this year, and the Ravens are 7-point favorites in this game.

With a 10.2% EV Edge at PrizePicks, Walter believes this is a bet worth taking on Thursday night. Henry is projected for 22.4 rush attempts in our Player Prop Evaluator.

My Final Score Prediction

Winner: Lions, Chiefs, Ravens

Spread Winner: Lions, Chiefs, Bengals

OVER/UNDER: UNDER, UNDER, OVER

Winner Record: 7-5

Spread Winner Record: 5-7

Over/Under Record: 7-5