Sam has been 75% correct picking every playoff game the past four seasons. AND he has correctly predicted the last four Super Bowls. This is how he’s done so far this year:

Wild Card: 4-2

Divisional Round: 3-1

Championship Round: 1-1

Total: 8-4 (66.6%)

The Patriots are live underdogs in Super Bowl 60 - their elite defense and efficient offense are being dramatically undervalued. The Seahawks opened as and remain favorites, but the betting market is sleeping on New England's defensive dominance and Drake Maye's breakout season.

The Patriots defense has been suffocating in the playoffs - 12 sacks, 5 interceptions, while not allowing more than 16 points to any team. They held Herbert and the Chargers to only 3 points in the divisional round.

Seattle still holds the defensive edge, but the gap is smaller than many realize. The Seahawks faced much weaker defenses than the Pats did throughout these playoffs.

The Patriots ranked third in EPA per play when adjusted for strength of schedule this season. They averaged more yards per game than Seattle despite scoring fewer points.

Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting because this offense clicked all season. It’s worth acknowledging that it’s been quiet in the playoffs - but regression to their elite regular season form is very possible, if not likely, on the biggest stage.

My Pick: The Patriots

Mack Hollins is someone that the Patriots trust. On top of that - he’s passed this mark in 8 of his last 10 games.

He is an excellent blocker, which means he will see substantial snaps. He could pass this line in one play. We have him allotted for 36 receiving yards.

Posted on 1/27/26 at 2:01pm ET. Original line over 25.5 receiving yards at -115 on DraftKings.

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Patriot Parlay

+144 Odds on DraftKings

Milton Williams Super Bowl MVP (+20000)

The Patriots defensive lineman has an actual path to winning Super Bowl MVP - something that has only happened twice.

The Path:

Williams’ has been on a dominant playoff run and a favorable matchup creates a plausible 200-1 scenario.

Williams should spend most of the game lined up against Seattle's right guard, Anthony Bradford, the weakest link in their offensive line. If the Pats are going to win, it will be by putting tremendous pressure on Sam Darnold.

Williams has the matchup advantage and recent pedigree to make this worth a small bet if you believe in a Patriots victory driven by pass rush.

Drake Maye over 300 Passing Yards Alt Line (+578):

Why?

New England has leaned on the run throughout the playoffs, but as underdogs, they'll need to open up the offense if the ground game stalls against Seattle's strong defense. Matthew Stafford just threw for 374 yards against them. It’s not that far fetched for Drake Maye to do the same.

Parlay with Maye:

Parlaying the Maye passing yards with the Patriots to win. It’s likely that if the yards hit - the Patriots will have won their seventh Lombardi Trophy.

Other Bets Sam likes:

TreVeyon Henderson over 49.5 or 64.5 Rushing Yard Alt Lines (+670, +1000):

Why?

He won’t see many carries - but his explosiveness makes him capable of exceeding these marks in as little as one play.

Cooper Kupp over 64.5 or 79.5 Receiving Yard Alt Lines (+329, +800):

Why?

Kupp won Super Bowl MVP the last time he was in the big game, and I foresee the Patriots heavily focusing on JSN, leaving opportunities available for Kupp - who’s been heavily involved as of late.

Seth Burton:

A simple one for me - Last Play of Game to be a QB Kneel (-164)

Joey Pollizze:

Mack Hollins over 2.5 Receptions (+124)

Why?

Hollins has stepped in as the third WR in this Patriots offense behind both Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte. He has gone over this line in three of his last four games. He has emerged as a solid deep-threat option for Drake Maye and continues to play over 60% of New England’s snaps. The opportunities will be there for Hollins to go over this line.

Samps (me):

I’m not a big parlay guy - My Super Bowl bet is Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP (+120)

If you’ve read my Super Bowl Mega-Preview, you know that I have a strong conviction that Seattle is going to win. I have a hard time seeing anyone outside of Sam Darnold winning MVP, especially when you factor in how good the Patriot run defense is.