I watched every Jarrett Stidham pass attempt since he has entered the league this week - most people are underestimating his ceiling.

There’s a reason Sean Payton’s very first move after joining broncos was signing Stidham to a 2 year contract that made him one of the highest paid backups in the league.

*Fun fact - he's actually making more per year than Bo Nix who is still on his rookie contract.

In my opinion, Stidham has the ability to move outside the pocket and keep his eyes downfield to generate big plays - Stidham plays with no fear, as you might expect from a backup, and that can be both a blessing and a curse.

For the Patriots, the thing that the Patriots “lack of a difficult schedule” ignores is that they are a top-3 efficient offense when you adjust for strength of schedule.

They’ve destroyed most teams they’ve played this year. And their defense is playing at a truly elite level in the playoffs so far. As far as I’m concerned, New England’s offense is good enough to score 30+ points against a good Broncos defense. That’s what a Super Bowl champion team looks like. Even though I think Stidham's ceiling is being underrated, I'm taking the Pats.

My Pick: The Patriots

The season series tells the story:

Week 11: Rams 26, Seahawks 24 - Darnold threw 4 interceptions, but Seattle nearly stole it.

Week 16: Seahawks 27, Rams 26 (OT) - Shootout where LA's offense carved up the league's best defense.

The Seahawks have the best defense left in the NFL playoffs, but we've already seen the Rams score 20+ points against them twice.

I still don’t trust Sam Darnold - despite his strong efficiency this season, he’s still been extremely sensitive to pressure, which is a big reason why he has thrown a total of 6 interceptions against the Rams across his two meetings with them in the regular season.

The Seahawks also just lost their best pass-blocking running back, Zach Charbonnet. I expect Darnold to be relied on too heavily for my comfort - I am taking the Rams.

My Pick: Rams

The rookie kicker has been excellent this season, and we are projecting him to play a substantial role in a competitive, defensive matchup. He has gone over this mark in 2 of his last 3 games, and on the road, he has the potential to be hitting kicks from further away than we may be accustomed to seeing. We have Borregales allotted for 9 kicking points in the Conference Championship.

Posted on 1/23/26 at 4:36pm ET. Original line over 7.5 kicking points at -105.

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