🏈 Sam Factor's "Do Not Draft List"

Every year WalterPicks CEO Sam Factor publishes his DO NOT DRAFT list before drafts and it is one of our company’s most popular pieces of content.

Last season the list contained players like Zamir White, Devin Singletary, Ezekiel Elliott, Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian Watson, and Tyler Lockett. All of these players were dreadful for fantasy football.

The list also included Courtland Sutton and Jordan Addison who were amazing. The list is not going to be perfect. But it can help us avoid significant busts in fantasy football and should be a core part of your pre-draft research.

Here is Sam’s DO NOT DRAFT list for 2025:

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DONT lose your fantasy football league with these players. WalterPicks app + avoid these guys = 🏆 this szn #fantasyfootballadvice #fantasy... See more

1. Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams led the league in carries last season, but only recorded two rushes over 20 yards. He is unlikely to lead the league in carries again with Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter behind him. We prefer Chase Brown and Omarion Hampton as running backs going in a similar range in drafts.

ADP: RB11

2. James Cook

James Cook is an obvious regression candidate after scoring 18 touchdowns in 2024. His price is too high on an offense that will spread the ball around a ton in 2025.

ADP: RB14

3. Chuba Hubbard

Chuba Hubbard is unlikely to rank top three in snap percentage, top 12 in targets and top 12 in carries again this year with Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne mixing in. There are also intriguing wide receivers going in this range as well as TreVeyon Henderson and R.J. Harvey.

ADP: RB19

4. Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco may not even be the best running back on the Chiefs right now. Rookie Brashard Smith could be the best pass-catching running back on the team, and Kareem Hunt was solid down the stretch in 2024. Hunt could easily vulture touchdowns this season. With Elijah Mitchell also being added, do not be surprised if the Chiefs practice the "running back by committee" approach this season.

ADP: RB25

5. Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon turns 29 this season, and he is behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Additionally, Houston brought in rookie Woody Marks, a very prolific pass-catcher, and Nick Chubb, a veteran that will steal rush share. It is also crucial to note that Mixon is dealing with a severe ankle injury that has a very possible chance of causing him to miss significant time in 2025.

ADP: RB23

6. Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is still the cheetah, but he is 31 years old and coming off the worst statistical season of his career. Tua Tagovailoa did miss time in 2024, but even when he played, Tyreek did not have the weekly ceiling we have been accustomed to seeing. Also, the vibes in Miami have been terrible since Hill publicly stated that he wants to leave the team at the end of last season. We would rather target Jaylen Waddle two rounds later.

ADP: WR13

7. Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin is coming off a major injury heading into his age 29 season. A lot of his excellent 2024 production came from the slot, but the Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round, a talented wide receiver with an excellent slot skill set. Godwin's lack of consistent slot opportunities will lead to a large dip in efficiency.

ADP: WR37

8. Cooper Kupp

It is telling that the Rams let Cooper Kupp sign somewhere else this offseason. In his final five games in 2024, he had over 5.5 fantasy points one time, despite playing over 75% of snaps in all five of those games. He also has a clear downgrade at quarterback, going from Matthew Stafford to Sam Darnold.

ADP: WR40

9. Sam LaPorta

The loss of Ben Johnson could impact Sam LaPorta more than any other player on the team. The Lions tight end has an impressive 12% touchdown rate in 2024, but only averaged 10.8 PPR points per game, finishing as the TE9. He is not worth the draft cost when you can draft David Njoku, Tyler Warren, and Colston Loveland later in the draft.

ADP: TE4

10. T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson only had two games over 15 PPR points last season. Although he was coming off an injury, and likely has an upgrade at quarterback, we would prefer taking one of the elite tight ends or waiting until the end of the draft, as opposed to paying the current cost for the Vikings tight end.

ADP: TE6

11. Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce is 36 years old and clearly past his prime. A primary reason to avoid Kelce is that the Chiefs have lowered his workload substantially down the stretch in each of the last two seasons. Similarly to Hockenson, wait on tight end instead of paying the cost for Kelce.

ADP: TE5

12. Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews is a massive regression candidate, coming off a season where he had a 19.6% touchdown rate. This percentage would be incredibly difficult to duplicate, and his average touchdown rate throughout his career is around 10%. Isaiah Likely will return early in the season as well, and Sam is not so sure that Andrews is the better tight end between the two.

ADP: TE7

13. Evan Engram

Evan Engram has always relied on volume for fantasy football success, primarily because of his very low average depth of target (ADOT). He almost broke the tight end receptions record with the Jaguars in 2023, yet he finished at the TE5 in fantasy points per game that season. He is unlikely to record similar volume on a Broncos offense that spreads the ball around a lot.

ADP: TE10

14. Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith had an outlier season in 2024, thanks to teams funneling targets away from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. He is now on the Steelers, a team that is likely to be one of the slowest in pace and lowest in passing volume in the NFL. He is also competing with Pat Freiermuth for targets. Do not chase last year's production for Jonnu Smith.

ADP: TE13

15. Jared Goff

Jared Goff is a pocket passer who is incredibly unlikely to replicate his insane 7.1% touchdown rate from 2024.

ADP: QB12