🏈 Preseason news that matters

1. Info that Matters - Playing Time With Starters

The most helpful information from preseason games is simply which players are playing the most with the 1st-team offense. In some preseason games the 1st-team offense does not play at all, while in others they may play as many as 15-20 snaps.

One of the most notable 1st-team usage takeaways from this preseason so far is Broncos WR Marvin Mims playing in 15 out of 18 plays with Bo Nix and the 1st-team offense. Marvin Mims was the 6th most efficient receiver in the NFL last year on a per route basis. The problem is he did not player more than 50% of snaps in a single regular season game. This preseason usage suggests Mims could be more of an every-down receiver for the Broncos. We’ve raised his ceiling and median projection in the WalterPicks app based on this news.

2. Info That Does NOT Matter - Big Plays or Big Performances

TreVeyon Henderson showcased elite explosiveness immediately in the Patriots first preseason game. This is not news though! We have had Henderson ranked as a 4th/5th round pick in PPR leagues for several months now, and he has been the clear most explosive player on the Patriots since he was drafted in April.

We want to be careful not double-count information that we are already accounting for. Historically, preseason performance has no regular season predictiveness (who remembers Kerryon Johnson?).

To be clear, TreVeyon Henderson is still a great pick in fantasy (but dear god as a Patriots fan and fantasy manager can we stop having our most explosive offensive players return kicks in the preseason 🙏).

3. Info That Matters - Injuries

Injuries play a major role in fantasy football every single season. People will often point to injuries as their argument for why fantasy football is “all luck”. While injuries certainly do introduce extreme levels of variance into the game of fantasy football, injuries are something skilled fantasy managers can prepare for and strategize around.

There are always several players that pick up injuries worth monitoring and adjusting for in the preseason. So far this season players like Tyjae Spears, Darnell Mooney, Jayden Reed, and Najee Harris all have risk to miss regular season games with active injuries. The projections team at WalterPicks spends countless hours every season sifting through all injury news to make sure our projections have the best possible assumptions. This time of year I personally like to avoid players in drafts that are actively at risk to miss regular season games.

If you are interested to see how many games certain players are projected to miss, simply go to that players profile in the WalterPicks app and toggle the game logs to 2025.

We currently project Tyjae Spears to miss two games with his high ankle sprain. Tony Pollard projects as a very strong fantasy option during those games.

4. Info That Does NOT Matter - Contract Disputes

Every season, NFL players hold out (or in) during the preseason while working to negotiate a new contract with their team. It’s hard to blame them considering the average length of an NFL career is just 3.3 years. It’s extremely uncommon for these contract disputes to lead to significant (if any) missed regular season games. Players have major financial incentives to not miss games, and the teams have major incentives to win games (which requires their best players playing).

James Cook’s contract holdout ended this week, leaving Jauan Jennings as the only known fantasy-relevant contract holdout. We do NOT expect Jauan Jennings to miss regular season games due to this.