Predictions for Round 1 of Fantasy Drafts 🏈

Now that the NFL draft is complete, we're seeing ADP data start to trickle in from Best Ball drafts. Typical season-long drafts tend to skew toward RBs going higher AND the player markets will inevitably see shifts over the next several months.

This is our best guess as to what most 12-team PPR fantasy drafts will look like come August.

1.01 - Saquon Barkley (RB - Eagles)

Saquon Barkley outscored every other RB last year by over two points per week and was a certified league winner. We are projecting him to pass Chase as the consensus 1.01 as the offseason goes on. If the tush push is banned (which there appears to be a strong chance of) he may be in line for even more red zone scoring opportunities in 2025.

1.02 - Ja'Marr Chase (WR - Bengals)

Ja'Marr Chase is the consensus first WR off the board right now, and we don't see that changing. He was the best WR last year by nearly 70 PPR points and projects to have a largely unchanged situation in 2025.

1.03 - Justin Jefferson (WR - Vikings)

Justin Jefferson fell to the back end of the first round last season due to concerns about who would be throwing him the ball. These proved overblown and he finished as the WR2 (his fourth top 5 finish in five seasons). Even with uncertainty surrounding what JJ McCarthy will look like at the professional level, we don't see Jefferson falling again this year.

1.04 - Bijan Robinson (RB - Falcons)

Bijan Robinson was as good as any RB last season not named Saquon Barkley, and at the age of 23 shows no signs of slowing down. There is some potential for the Falcons offense to take a leap next season with a full year of Michael Penix Jr., but we find it hard to see a scenario where he jumps Saquon to be the first RB off the board.

1.05 - CeeDee Lamb (WR - Cowboys)

CeeDee Lamb 2024 felt like a bit of a lost season with the Dak Prescott injury and the Cowboys overall team regression. He still managed to finish as the WR5 in PPG and exceed 25 points the first week of the fantasy playoffs. His ceiling is much higher with Dak and we project him to be helped by the addition of George Pickens. Some may prefer a RB in this spot, but it's hard to see any of the WRs listed after this leaping CeeDee.

1.06 - Jahmyr Gibbs (RB - Lions)

Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off a monster year in his prime and returning to a situation that is largely unchanged. Concerns about the absence of Ben Johnson may prevent him from jumping up the board but drafters could still be enticed by a potential volume bump if David Montgomery were to miss any time again.

1.07 - Ashton Jeanty (RB - Raiders)

Ashton Jeanty is the fun pick! The highest drafted RB since 2017 landed in the ideal spot. The Raiders should have a stable offense with a good veteran quarterback and a solid pass catching group. Most importantly, Jeanty should have very little competition for touches in the RB room. Seeing Jeanty sport Raider black in training camp is certain to get fantasy users hyped enough to take him in the middle of the first round.

1.08 - Christian McCaffrey (RB - 49ers)

Christian McCaffrey is going significantly lower in current Best Ball drafts. But consider what will happen if he's healthy in training camp: Shanahan will reiterate that the offense only goes as far as CMC takes them. There will be a tell-all about the injuries he battled last season and the advanced treatment measures he took to come back faster than ever. The marketing cycle for RBs coming off down years with injuries is to be expected! CMC is arguably the greatest fantasy football player of all time, and assuming no complications we expect him to rise come draft season.

1.09 - Malik Nabers (WR - Giants)

Malik Nabers managed a WR4 finish his rookie season despite poor QB play and an offense with limited scoring opportunities. Chances are the quarterback play will be better in New York this year (fingers crossed). Even a slight decline in target volume wouldn't prevent Nabers from being one of the best WRs in fantasy football.

1.10 - Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR - Lions)

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the boring pick in fantasy drafts now? There isn't much reason to believe the ceiling is much higher, but he has one of the highest floors in fantasy football. He has finished as a top 7 WR in fantasy in each of the last three seasons and the Lions made no major additions to the pass catching room this offseason.

1.11 - Derrick Henry (RB - Ravens)

Derrick Henry is going much lower than this in Best Ball drafts, but has a tendency to rise in more casual leagues. Is it risky to draft a 31-year-old running back in the first round? Chances are, nobody cares.

1.12 - Puka Nacua (WR - Rams)

Puka Nacua could be one of several candidates for the last pick of the first round but we are wagering now that Puka will take the cake. He ended up being a first rounder despite injury concerns last season. WR1s in McVay/Stafford offenses tend to be priced highly. Usually, they're worth it.

Players We Could See Sneaking Into Round 1:

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR - Jaguars), Nico Collins (WR - Texans), Brock Bowers (TE - Raiders), De’Von Achane (RB - Dolphins), Bucky Irving (RB - Buccaneers), Jonathan Taylor (RB - Colts)