How Our Prop Picks Work
Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.
We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Round 2:
Divisional Round Results:
Overall Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Change in Units: +2.17
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$43.40
$50 Bettor is +$108.50
$100 Bettor is +$217.00
2025 Full Season Results:
Overall Record: 125-123 (50.4%)
Change in Units: -10.38
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is -$207.60
$50 Bettor is -$519.00
$100 Bettor is -$1,038.00
Results from Previous Seasons:
2024 Results
Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)
Change in Units: +23
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$460.00
$50 Bettor is +$1,150.00
$100 Bettor is +$2,300.00
2023 Results
Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)
Change in Units: +45.87
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$917.40
$50 Bettor is +$2,293.50
$100 Bettor is +$4,587.00
Prop Summary
✅ Bo Nix Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (17.2% EV)- Result: 12
✅ Caleb Williams Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (12.2% EV)- Result: 42
✅ Eddy Pineiro Over 5.5 Kicking Points (9.5% EV)- Result: 6
✅ Josh Allen Over 215.5 Passing Yards (3.1% EV)- Result: 283
✅ Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (10% EV)- Result: 4
❌ Christian McCaffrey Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (1.3% EV)- Result: 39
❌ Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (14.2% EV)- Result: 5
🚑 Ty Johnson Over 1.5 Receptions (5.6% EV)- Result: null
Super Bowl Predictions from the WalterPicks Team
Patriots over Seahawks (Patrick McDonnell)
Reasoning: The Patriots' defense should be able to stall the Broncos run game who rushed for only 3.2 YPC against a putrid Bills rushing defense. And then I like them in a matchup against Seattle where their defense should be able to neutralize a lot Seattle's strengths. Drake Maye and the offense will have played against three elite defenses already by the time they reach Santa Clara, and to this point none have been able to completely stall them out.
Rams over Patriots (Trevor Martin)
Reasoning: The Rams split with the Seahawks this season, with both games decided by fewer than three points. The Rams defense should pressure Darnold into mistakes, and their offense will be good enough to win that matchup. The winner of that game should win the Super Bowl, and the Patriots get to play Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship Game, so it will likely be them representing the AFC.
Rams over Patriots (Joey Pollizze)
The winner of Rams versus Seahawks will win the Super Bowl. I think the Rams are the more talented team, and I trust Matthew Stafford over Sam Darnold in the NFC Championship. Patriots should win a close one against the Broncos, which sets the stage for Stafford versus Drake Maye in the Super Bowl. These were the two best QBs all season. In the end though, Stafford does just enough to bring another title to Los Angeles.
Seahawks THROTTLE the Patriots (Andrew Sampogna)
The Patriots have not impressed me in these playoffs, and they’re going to get their win over the Broncos sans Bo Nix (because of course that happened). I also have not been impressed by the Rams playcalling or performance in the playoffs. Seattle is far and away the most complete team right now, and the Seahawks won’t allow Sam Darnold to hold them back. The Seahawks will be the best team the Patriots play all season, and the results of the game will show that.
