How Our Prop Picks Work
Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.
We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Round 1:
Wild Card Round Results:
Overall Record: 2-7 (22.2%)
Change in Units: -4.65
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is -$93.00
$50 Bettor is -$232.50
$100 Bettor is -$465.00
2025 Full Season Results:
Overall Record: 120-121 (49.8%)
Change in Units: -12.54
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is -$250.80
$50 Bettor is -$627.50
$100 Bettor is -$1,254.00
Results from Previous Seasons:
2024 Results
Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)
Change in Units: +23
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$460.00
$50 Bettor is +$1,150.00
$100 Bettor is +$2,300.00
2023 Results
Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)
Change in Units: +45.87
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$917.40
$50 Bettor is +$2,293.50
$100 Bettor is +$4,587.00
Prop Summary
✅ Dawson Knox Over 2.5 Receptions (8.1% EV)- Result: 3
✅ Tre Harris Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (9.2% EV)- Result: 20
❌ A.J. Brown Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (3.2% EV)- Result: 25
❌ Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (4.5% EV)- Result: 0
❌ Bryce Young Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (17.3% EV)- Result: 3
❌ Cole Kmet Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (10.3% EV)- Result: 0
❌ Dalton Kincaid Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (4.3% EV)- Result: 28
❌ Efton Chism III Under 0.5 Receptions (2% EV)- Result: 1
❌ Kyren Williams Under 1.5 Receptions (8.9% EV)- Result: 2
Divisional Round Preview
Saturday:
Matchup: Bills @ Broncos
Time: 4:30PM ET
Where to Watch: CBS
Spread: DEN -1.5
Something to monitor: The Bills may be getting Ed Oliver back this week - a massive boost to their DL. With three trips to blue tent vs. Jacksonville, its hard to believe Josh Allen will be at 100%.
Matchup: 49ers @ Seahawks
Time: 8:00PM ET
Where to Watch: FOX
Spread: SEA -7
Something to monitor: 49ers LT Trent Williams is expected to return (he missed their Week 18 matchup). With reinforcements plus two weeks since that last matchup for Kyle Shanahan to put together a game plan, the 49ers could be live dogs.
Sunday:
Matchup: Texans @ Patriots
Time: 3:00PM ET
Where to Watch: ESPN/ABC
Spread: NE -3
Something to monitor: Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez and Texans WR Nico Collins are both in concussion protocol. Clearance for either one of them would be a massive swing for either team.
Matchup: Rams @ Bears
Time: 6:30PM ET
Where to Watch: NBC
Spread: CHI +3.5
Something to monitor: The forecasted high temperature in Chicago on Sunday is 15 degrees with 10-20 mph winds. The Rams played respectably last January in cold weather, losing to Philly in a snow game. But the team has not played in a playoff game with freezing temperatures at kickoff since 1983.
Stay tuned for a more in-depth preview of the slate coming to your inbox this week!
