🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 9 Performance - PLUS waiver adds/trades for this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
November 04, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 9:

Week 9 Results:

  • Overall Record: 4-10 (28.6%)

  • Change in Units: -6.55

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is -$131

    • $50 Bettor is -$327.50

    • $100 Bettor is -$655

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 55-54 (50.5%)

  • Change in Units: -4.01

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is -$80.20

    • $50 Bettor is -$200.50

    • $100 Bettor is -$402.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Caleb Williams Over 233.5 Passing Yards (2.4% EV)- Result: 280

    • Even in a tough week like this, we can count on the Bengals defense for fireworks.

  • ✅ Daniel Jones Over 236.5 Passing Yards (17.7% EV)- Result: 274

  • ✅ Hunter Long Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (13% EV)- Result: 6

  • ✅ Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (10.5% EV)- Result: 96

    • The Cowboys are the Bengals of the NFC. This line was at 59.5 on most books by game time.

  • ❌ Bam Knight Over 11.5. Rush Attempts (17.3% EV)- Result: 9

  • ❌ Bryce Young Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (11.1% EV)- Result: 20

    • The Packers Panthers game did not abide by our projected game script - what a miss.

  • ❌ Hunter Henry Under 3.5 Receptions (9.1% EV)- Result: 4

    • The Boutte injury inadvertently hurt us here. The Patriots threw to Henry to seal the game up one point in what could have very easily been a blowout.

  • ❌ Jalen Coker Over 2.5 Receptions (11% EV)- Result: 1

  • ❌ Malik Washington Over 3.5 Receptions (6.1% EV)- Result: 3

  • ❌ Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (10.2% EV)- Result: 4

    • Rice finally let us down after some very profitable weeks.

  • ❌ Roman Wilson Over 1.5 Receptions (16.9% EV)- Result: 1

  • ❌ Romeo Doubs Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (12% EV)- Result: 87

  • ❌ Tetairoa McMillan Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (11.2% EV)- Result: 46

  • ❌ Tyler Warren Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (11.6% EV)- Result: 26

  • 🚑 Aaron Jones Over 2.5 Receptions (22.9% EV)- Result: 2

Editors Note: This was an EXTREMELY tough week and it always sucks to see our season total go into the negative. But we need to recognize that weeks like this are part of the process. Betting on NFL props is inherently risky and there will be swings back and forth.

We remain extremely confident in our process and our results over a large sample speak for themselves. We are excited to analyze this next slate and come back strong in Week 10!

Our projections team moves fast! Any more trades that go down today will be reflected quickly within the app!

If anything else goes down, be sure to check out our Rest of Season Rankings and player profiles!

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • A 40 year-old QB who can be streamed (hint: its Joe Flacco)

  • Three pass catchers to add who are on the verge of breaking out!

  • Three RBs to SELL!