🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 3 Performance - PLUS waiver adds/trades for this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
September 23, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 2:

Week 3 Results:

  • Overall Record: 6-7 (46.2%)

  • Change in Units: -1.82

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is -$36.40

    • $50 Bettor is -$91.00

    • $100 Bettor is -$182.00

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 20-17 (54.1%)

  • Change in Units: +0.37

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$7.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$18.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$37.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Dyami Brown Over 2.5 Receptions (10.5% EV)- Result: 5

  • ✅ Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (16.3% EV)- Result: 6

  • ✅ James Cook Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (5.4% EV)- Result: 118

    • This line SKYROCKETED right after we posted and was up to 94.5 on some books by game time - a terrific early find.

  • ✅ Josh Jacobs Under 98.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (18.3% EV)- Result: 73 ✅ Kenneth Gainwell Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (9.1% EV)- Result: 16

  • ✅ Marcus Mariota Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (13% EV)- Result: 21

  • ✅ Tyquan Thornton Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (20% EV)- Result: 71

    • This is another that saw a big spike once Worthy was ruled out.

  • ❌ Alvin Kamara Over 3.5 Receptions (20% EV)- Result: 1

  • ❌ Bo Nix Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (12.2% EV)- Result: 23

  • ❌ Dalton Schultz Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (12.2% EV)- Result: 39

  • ❌ DeAndre Hopkins Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (9.3% EV)- Result: 13

    • The long attempt to Hopkins on the sideline was there but he drew a flag rather than making the grab.

  • ❌ Stefon Diggs Over 3.5 Receptions (12.8% EV)- Result: 3

  • ❌ Troy Franklin Over 3.5 Receptions (15.5% EV)- Result: 2

  • ❌ Tyler Allgeier Over 43.5 Rush Yards (12% EV)- Result: 4

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • Adding Trey Benson

  • Adding Christian Kirk

  • An RB to drop

  • 3 players to target in trades