🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Our Week 11 Rebound Performance - PLUS waiver adds/trades for this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
November 18, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 11:

Week 11 Results:

  • Overall Record: 9-3 (75%)

  • Change in Units: +5.57

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$111.14

    • $50 Bettor is +$278.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$557.00

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 68-66 (50.7%)

  • Change in Units: -4.02

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is -$80.40

    • $50 Bettor is -$201.00

    • $100 Bettor is -$402.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Aaron Jones Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (5.4% EV)- Result: 70

  • ✅ Derrick Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (13.1% EV)- Result: 103

  • ✅ Luther Burden Over 1.5 Receptions (11.2% EV)- Result: 3

  • ✅ Michael Wilson Over 3.5 Receptions (23.7% EV)- Result: 15

  • ✅ Nick Chubb Under 0.5 Receptions (4.3% EV)- Result: 0

  • ✅ Rashee Rice Under 7.5 Rushing Yards (13.6% EV)- Result: 0

  • ✅ Sean Tucker Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (11.6% EV)- Result: 19

  • ✅ Tony Pollard Under 11.5 Rushing Attempts (9.9% EV)- Result: 10

  • ✅ Tyler Lockett Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (10.6% EV)- Result: 33

  • ❌ Dawson Knox Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (13.5% EV)- Result: 23

  • ❌ Drake Maye Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (7.3% EV)- Result: 5

  • ❌ Rico Dowdle Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (17.9% EV)- Result: 45

  • 🚑 Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (21% EV)- Result: 40

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

*The next few weeks are the trade deadline for most leagues. Make sure you know exactly when your league’s deadline is and put together a plan that gives you a path to a championship!

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • Three handcuff running backs who are getting chances to shine

  • Two running backs who are better off on waivers than your roster

  • Two WRs to trade for who could go off in the fantasy playoffs