🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 10 Performance - PLUS waiver adds/trades for this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
November 11, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 10:

Week 10 Results:

  • Overall Record: 4-9 (30.7%)

  • Change in Units: -5.58

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is -$111.60

    • $50 Bettor is -$279.00

    • $100 Bettor is -$558.00

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 59-63 (48.4%)

  • Change in Units: -9.59

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is -$191.80

    • $50 Bettor is -$479.50

    • $100 Bettor is -$959.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Some more context for volume/results of previous seasons:

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Daniel Jones Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (9.1% EV)- Result: 26

  • ✅ Drake Maye Over 241.5 Passing Yards (9.6% EV)- Result: 270

    • This is now 5 times in the last 6 games that Maye has exceeded this line.

  • ✅ Emanuel Wilson Under 35.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (7.6% EV)- Result: 4 ✅ TreVeyon Henderson Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (23.2% EV)- Result: 14

    • The Jennings injury early certainly made this one a sweat, but he was getting much of the early rushing work for the Pats.

  • ❌ Alvin Kamara Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (8.4% EV)- Result: 83

  • ❌ Elijah Arroyo Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (23.9% EV)- Result: 5

    • Most books had this line at 20.5, we stand behind the value on this one.

  • ❌ James Cook Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (6% EV)- Result: 53

  • ❌ Jaret Patterson Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (7.9% EV)- Result: 1

  • ❌ Justin Herbert Over 248.5 Passing Yards (10.4% EV)- Result: 220

  • ❌ Kyle Monangai Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (8.8% EV)- Result: 28

  • ❌ Parker Washington Over 3.5 Receptions (13.6% EV)- Result: 3

  • ❌ Rico Dowdle Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (6.7% EV)- Result: 18

  • ❌ Travis Etienne Over 2.5 Receptions (14.3% EV)- Result: 2

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • A QB savior who is coming back WAY sooner than expected

  • Two Dolphins trade targets

  • Two RBs coming off huge performances to trade away