🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Before we get into our player prop performance from this week, we wanted to highlight that our player prop evaluator supports NBA betting and the season begins tomorrow!

About halfway through last season we began implementing a +EV (positive expected value) modeling system that learns which sportsbooks are sharpest for each individual market.

This new system scans 15+ sportsbooks every 2 minutes and identifies mis-priced lines that have a positive expected value.

Targeting +EV lines is one of the sharpest betting strategies you can deploy - in fact it was so effective last season for our CEO Sam that he was limited to bets less than $10 on his sportsbook!

The +EV analysis on Opening Night lines are live now in the WalterPicks App! You can view props for Rockets vs. Thunder and Warriors vs. Lakers here!

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 6:

Week 7 Results:

• Overall Record: 4-6 (40%)

• Change in Units: -2.42

• Results based on unit size:

  • $20 Bettor is -$48.40

  • $50 Bettor is -$121.00

  • $100 Bettor is -$242.00

2025 Results So Far:

• Overall Record: 44-38 (53.7%)

• Change in Units: +2.17

• Results based on unit size:

  • $20 Bettor is +$43.40

  • $50 Bettor is +$108.50

  • $100 Bettor is +$217.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

• Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

• Change in Units: +23

• Results based on unit size:

  • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

  • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

  • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

• Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

• Change in Units: +45.87

• Results based on unit size:

  • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

  • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

  • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

• ✅ Javonte Williams Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (10.5% EV)- Result: 116

• ✅ Jaylen Warren Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (11.7% EV)- Result: 127

  • The Bengals continue to be a haven for opposing rushing attacks.

• ✅ Mac Jones Under 253.5 Passing Yards (6% EV)- Result: 152

• ✅ Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions (18.2% EV)- Result: 7

• ❌ Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (9.8% EV)- Result: 33

  • This is two weeks in a row we have missed on a Jacory Croskey-Merritt over. It will be interesting to see how books respond with his recent rough performances and the injury to Daniels.

• ❌ Jayden Higgins Over 2.5 Receptions (15.9% EV)- Result: 0

• ❌ Kyren Williams Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (17.8% EV)- Result: 11

• ❌ Luke McCaffrey Over 24.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (15.5% EV)- Result: 0

• ❌ Luther Burden Over 1.5 Receptions (11.4% EV)- Result: 1

• ❌ Rashee Rice Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (19% EV)- Result: 42

  • The targets were certainly there despite a limited snap count. He ran out of room to run a couple of times here.

• 🚑 Kendre Miller Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (12.4% EV)- Result: 7

Recommended Transactions for Week 8

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Last week we told you to:

• Pick up Oronde Gadsen II (164 receiving yards vs. Colts!)

• Trade away Ashton Jeanty (6 carries vs. Chiefs)

• Trade away Xavier Worthy (7.8 points in a blowout vs. Raiders)

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

• A late-round Rutgers RB who doesn’t play for the Chiefs

• A defense that plays the Titans this week

• Two awesome WRs to sell right now

Click here to see the whole list of recommendations for Week 8!