🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 5 Performance - PLUS waiver adds/trades for this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
October 07, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 5:

Week 5 Results:

  • Overall Record: 9-4 (69.2%)

  • Change in Units: +5.08

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +101.60

    • $50 Bettor is +$254.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$508.00

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 38-25 (60.3%)

  • Change in Units: +9.84

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$196.80

    • $50 Bettor is +$492.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$984.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Adam Thielen Under 0.5 Receptions (24.4% EV)- Result: 0

  • ✅ Chase Brown Under 53.5 Rush Yards (8.2% EV)- Result: 27

    • The Bengals run blocking is abysmal and fading their run game will likely be appealing as the season continues.

  • ✅ J.K. Dobbins Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (14.8% EV)- Result: 79

    • Dobbins continues to have a firm hold on the RB1 job in Denver, even with Tyler Badie reentering the chat this week.

  •  ✅ Jaxson Dart Over 35.5 Rush Yards (8.2% EV)- Result: 55

  • ✅ Kendre Miller Over 25.5 Rush Yards (8.2% EV)- Result: 41

  • ✅ Luke Farrell Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (9.1% EV)- Result: 8

  • ✅ Quinshon Judkins Over 74.5 Rush yards (7.3% EV)- Result: 110

    • Judkins remains remarkably efficient for a guy who joined after training camp. This rushing line should keep rising.

  • ✅ Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (21% EV)- Result: 4

  • ✅ Rashid Shaheed Over 3.5 Receptions (9.7% EV)- Result: 4

  • ❌ Drake Maye Over 27.5 Rush Yards (6.9% EV)- Result: 12

  • ❌ Drake Maye Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (17.5% EV)- Result: 3

    • We may have been the only people let down by Drake Maye’s performance vs. Buffalo.

  • ❌ Luke McCaffrey Over 1.5 Receptions (15% EV)- Result: 1

  • ❌ Marquise Brown Under 3.5 Receptions (8.3% EV)- Result: 4

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • A pocket passer creeping towards weekly top-12 status

  • Two TEs who can start immediately

  • Three sell candidates who may be peaking right now