Week 3 Player Prop Report Card
How Our Prop Picks Work
Every week our projections team identifies NFL props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.
We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 3:
Week 3 Results:
Overall Record: 8-7 (53.33%)
Change in Units: -0.18
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is -$3.60
$50 Bettor is -$9.00
$100 Bettor is -$18
2026 Results:
Overall Record: 23-18 (56.1%)
Change in Units: +2.18
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$43.60
$50 Bettor is +$109
$100 Bettor is +$218
Previous Seasons Results (2019-2025):
Overall Record: 809-607 (57.1%)
Change in Units: +213.78
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$4,275.60
$50 Bettor is +$10,689
$100 Bettor is +$21,378
Prop Summary
✅ Colston Loveland Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (5.6% EV)- Result: 31
✅ Jared Wayne Under 1.5 Receptions (5.5% EV)- Result: 1
✅ Kyle Monangai Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (6.1% EV)- Result: 10
✅ Lamar Jackson Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (6.6% EV)- Result: 6
✅ Marshawn Lloyd Under 36.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (9.09% EV)- Result: 18
✅ Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Carries (14.92% EV)- Result: 17
✅ Tre Harris Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-3.7% EV)- Result: 76
✅ Tyler Allgeier Under 45.5 Rush + Rec Yards (7.3% EV)- Result: 9
❌ Bucky Irving Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (2.49% EV)- Result: 12
❌ Chase Brown Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (1.04% EV)- Result: 61
❌ Drew Stevens Under 1.5 PATs (4.2% EV)- Result: 3
❌ Emmett Johnson Anytime TD (-24.3% EV)- Result: 0
❌ Jameis Winston Under 7.5 Rushing Yards (7.6% EV)- Result: 14
❌ Javonte Williams Under 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (2.54% EV)- Result: 103
❌ Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (5.5% EV)- Result: 40
Watch a WalterPicks Projections Call 🏈
This season, users in our Discord can actually sit in on our projection team’s Monday call!
This means:
Hearing advanced data insights on every game from the past weekend
Getting insights into how we tweak our projections based on new data
Hearing waiver wire recommendations before they’re even posted in the app
Final review of projections/props for the MNF game
Week 3 Insights from Our Team
If you missed the projections team call today, we updated the projections for everything that has happened in Week 3!
If you want to get pinged going forward about any and all projections updates, head over to Channels and Roles in our Discord and sign up for the @WP Updates role!
Avery’s Week 3 Takeaways:
Achane DONE
Achane tore his ACL and is out for the year. Everyone will tell you Ollie Gordon is a must add, which is true, but Jaylen Wright will also get involved and should be a sneaky add off your waiver wire. For leaguemates that value Gordon as a workhorse RB1, test the sell high waters.
Omarion Hampton’s usage is SCARY (and not in a good way)
Hampton had zero 2 minute drill snaps, 1 of the 11 third down snaps and lost goal line opportunities to Keaton Mitchell. Add this to the offensive inefficiencies and my panic level is at a 7/10.
Chuba RB1 SZN
Dave Canales has history of giving workhorse level usage to his RB1. Now that Brooks is out of the picture thats exactly what were seeing and he is a must start every week.
Jadarian Price Stock DROPPING
Price had zero goalline opportunities, fumbled more time in 3 games than Ken Walker has in his entire career, was outsnapped by wilson and George Holani, and Zach Charbonnet is coming back… only dropping 1.2 PTS despite the team scoring 30+ is a major red flag.
BTJ is droppable
Thomas Jr. was tied for 3rd in snaps with Josh Cameron and running half as many routes as Parker Washington. He might’ve only been a Mac Jones producer.
Brock Purdy looks like a league winner
He is currently the QB5 despite all the WR injuries. CMC and Deebo should increase in target share if Mike Evans injury is serious.
Marv making no impact
Michael Wilson was targeted on what felt like every Brissett dropback. Marv doesn't look like he likes playing football and clearly not separating. He should be left on the bench and borderline droppable in shallow leagues.
