🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 4 Performance - PLUS waiver adds/trades for this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
September 30, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 4:

Week 4 Results:

  • Overall Record: 9-4 (69.2%)

  • Change in Units: +4.39

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +87.80

    • $50 Bettor is +$219.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$439.00

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 29-21 (58%)

  • Change in Units: +4.76

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$95.20

    • $50 Bettor is +$238.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$476.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Aaron Rodgers Under 211.5 Passing Yards (13.4% EV)- Result: 200

  • ✅ Blake Corum Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (25% EV)- Result: 21

  • ✅ Jonathan Taylor Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (19% EV)- Result: 20

  • ✅ Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (12.6% EV)- Result: 86

  • ✅ Marcus Mariota Under 204.5 Passing Yards (7.3% EV)- Result: 156

    • This is the second week in a row we have profited by shorting Mariota’s passing volume - something to keep in mind if Daniels misses more time.

  • ✅ Mason Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions (10.4% EV)- Result: 5

  • ✅ Nick Chubb Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (9.6% EV)- Result: 13

  • ✅ Nick Chubb Under 65.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (11.8% EV)- Result: 62

    • The Nick Chubb fade was well timed and hopefully you got the bets in at this line.

  • ✅ Quinshon Judkins Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (14.1% EV)- Result: 82

    • Expect this line to keep climbing.

  • ❌ Baker Mayfield Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (7% EV)- Result: 13

  • ❌ Cam Skattebo Over 2.5 Receptions (10.3% EV)- Result: 2

  • ❌ Sam Darnold Under 8.5 Rushing Yards (7.3% EV)- Result: 24

    • All it took was one big scramble to beat this and unfortunately Darnold scrambled for 20 yards early in the first half.

  • ❌ Tory Horton Over 2.5 Receptions (9.5% EV)- Result: 1

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • A 100% FAAB target

  • Two rookie RBs to sell high on

  • A forgotten trade target