🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 2 Performance - PLUS how to replace your injured QB this week!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
September 16, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 2:

Week 2 Results:

  • Overall Record: 7-5 (58.3%)

  • Change in Units: +1.42

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$28.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$71.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$142.00

2025 Results So Far:

  • Overall Record: 14-10 (58.3%)

  • Change in Units: +2.18

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$43.60

    • $50 Bettor is +$109.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$218.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Dyami Brown Over 2.5 Receptions (10.5% EV)- Result: 5

  • ✅ Jonathan Taylor Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (16.4% EV)- Result: 50

  • ✅ Jordan Love Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (8.4% EV)- Result: 12

  • ✅ Joshua Palmer Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (13.2% EV)- Result: 47

    • This line went up for the 2nd week in a row. Palmer now has 100+ yards through two weeks. Expect another rise next week.

  • ✅ Michael Pittman Jr. Under 4.5 Receptions (9% EV)- Result: 4

  • ✅ Ricky Pearsall Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (8.3% EV)- Result: 56

    • This line was at 56.5 on popular books by game time - once again emphasizing the importance of timing on these bets. Getting bets in as soon as values are identified can often times be the difference between wins and losses.

  • ✅ Travis Etienne Over 13.5 rushing attempts (10.7% EV)- Result: 14

  • ❌ Breece Hall Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (3.9% EV)- Result: 29

    • Hall still got tons of work - in a game where the Jets run game was completely stymied.

  • ❌ Omarion Hampton Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (11.2% EV)- Result: 24

  • ❌ TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (6.9% EV)- Result: 10

  • ❌ Trevor Lawrence Over 2.5 Rushing Attempts (20.2% EV)- Result: 2

  • ❌ Trey Benson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (13.6% EV)- Result: 14

With injury announcements to Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy - several people in your league are going to be looking for new QBs this week.

Here is the framework you are going to use to bolster your QB room. Obviously everyone’s situation and league settings are going to be slightly different, so you should take the insights here and apply them to your situation.

Option 1: Pick up Daniel Jones on Waivers

Daniel Jones is the QB2 on the season so far and should probably be rostered in every league, regardless of whether or not you need a QB.

He is currently only rostered in 34% of Sleeper leagues.

*If Drake Maye or Caleb Williams happen to be available, prioritize picking them up.

Option 2: Trade for a top-15 QB

Multiple teams in your league probably have two top-15ish QBs rostered. If you had Joe Burrow and are going to need some stability for awhile this is likely the best path.

Potential targets here include:

  • Justin Herbert

  • Caleb Williams

  • Jared Goff

  • Drake Maye

  • Kyler Murray

  • Jordan Love

  • Daniel Jones

Option 3: Stream in the Short Term

If you only need to fill the gap for a few weeks, you can likely get solid production by streaming QBs off of waivers.

Good Week 3 Matchups:

  • Aaron Rodgers vs. New England

  • Mac Jones vs. Arizona

Good Week 4 Matchups

  • Geno Smith vs. Chicago

  • Bryce Young vs. New England

These can change as we get more information so be sure to monitor our weekly QB rankings in the start/sit tool.

Option 4: Grab a Backup

If you are in a superflex league these are likely to be the only guys available. This is how we have the backups who will start ranked in terms of their short-term viability:

  1. Mac Jones

  2. Tyrod Taylor

  3. Jake Browning

  4. Carson Wentz

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended transactions for this week include:

  • Adding Cam Skattebo

  • Adding Bhayshul Tuten

  • 3 Players to Drop

  • 3 Players to Trade Away, and 2 to Trade For