Overrated Players for 2025 🏈

Players with massive regression can be absolute landmines in fantasy football and tank your chances of winning. Just look at Raheem Mostert last year. He was coming off a 21-touchdown season but was barely a factor on the ground throughout 2024. Identifying these types of players every season is critical to fantasy success and can help you avoid league-losing mistakes.

Here are four major regression candidates Walter has identified for 2025. Draft with caution.

4 Players to AVOID Early in 2025 Fantasy Drafts

1. James Cook (RB - Bills)

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook was a strong RB1 option last year. He finished as the RB8 in PPR formats and scored a career-high 16 rushing touchdowns. Those 16 touchdowns tied the franchise record for most rushing touchdowns in a season by a Bills running back. 

However, it’s fair to assume that Cook won’t cross the goal line that many times this upcoming season. He saw just 207 carries last year and had a whopping 7.3% rushing touchdown rate (first among all qualified players). 

Therefore, we should draft the Bills running back with caution this summer. He played under 50% of the team’s offensive snaps in seven straight games to end the season, and backup Ray Davis should only be more involved in his second year. Walter has Cook ranked 52nd overall, which is about 11 spots lower than his average ADP on Underdog (41.6). 

2. Terry McLaurin (WR - Commanders)

Fantasy managers have been waiting years for Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin to play with a good quarterback. Although McLaurin finished as a top-28 fantasy wideout in each of his first five NFL seasons, the team’s poor quarterback play held him back significantly from being a top-tier fantasy option. 

The good news was that we finally saw McLaurin reach his full fantasy potential in 2024. He finished as the WR7 in PPR formats behind an 82-catch, 1,096-yard, 13-touchdown campaign. Those 13 touchdowns were almost as many as the 29-year-old caught combined in the three seasons prior (14). 

As a result, some regression might be coming McLaurin’s way in 2025. He only had a 23.3% target share last year, and Deebo Samuel was added to this offense in the offseason. Although Walter has him ranked right around his average ADP (36.7), Walter’s WR20 rank is lower than the consensus (WR17). 

3. Josh Jacobs (RB - Packers)

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs is coming off the second-best fantasy season of his career. He finished as the RB6 in PPR formats and rushed 301 times for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns. Given that he averaged 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game, he will definitely be selected as an RB1 in most drafts. 

However, Jacobs could be a prime example of some regression. For starters, it’s unlikely he maintains a 5% rushing touchdown rate from last season. That was the highest of his career, and the Packers running back scored 12 touchdowns over the final eight weeks. 

It’s also important to note that the last time Jacobs carried the ball over 300 times in a season (2022), he winded up missing time the next year. While that might not have any direct correlation to the 2025 campaign, the 27-year-old will likely experience some touchdown regression. 

That makes him more of a high-end RB2 option this season, which is exactly where Walter has him ranked (RB13). That’s a few spots lower than the consensus (RB10). Walter also has the Packers running back ranked about 16 spots lower (36) than his average ADP (19.5). 

4. Mark Andrews (TE - Ravens)

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews was a popular pick in 2024 fantasy drafts. He had finished as a top-6 fantasy tight end in four of five seasons from 2019 to 2023, and the only year he did not finish that high was because of a season-ending ankle injury. Still, the veteran averaged over 13.5 PPR fantasy points during that 2023 campaign. 

That made him a safe selection early in drafts. While Andrews did finish as the TE6 in PPR formats last year, fantasy managers should expect some regression from him this upcoming season. 

Andrews totaled a career-high 11 touchdowns in 2024, which is why he finished as high as he did in fantasy. The 29-year-old caught all 11 of his touchdown passes in the final 12 games of the season. That likely won’t happen again.

We recommend drafting him with caution in most formats this year. He had just a 15.3% target share last season (the lowest since his rookie campaign in 2018), and Isaiah Likely should continue to be involved in this Baltimore offense in a contract year. Walter has Andrews ranked lower (TE11) than the general consensus (TE8) at the tight end position.