TLDR: Training camp starts this week and there is going to be a ton of noise. Our projections team is going to be tapped in daily, and constantly updating projections when there is news that actually matters. Turn notifications ON in the WalterPicks app to know when a projection shifts dramatically.
Today, rookies are reporting to training camp for the Bills, Texans, Patriots, Dolphins, and Panthers. By Tuesday July 28th, all veterans are required to report and preseason will officially begin.
Over these next 2-3 weeks:
Clips of WRs making acrobatic catches and running disgusting routes without pads will go viral on Twitter
There will be panic about rookies with high expectations working behind veterans in drills
Coaches will make comments about how much they like/believe in certain players and how their role is going to be expanded this year
Just about every player will be reportedly in the best shape of their career, have added 10+ pounds of muscle in the offseason, and resolved an unreported injury from the previous season
All of these things will happen. The fantasy community will react. They will overreact. All of these things will shift ADPs. It happens every year.
But this isn’t our first time. We will not be fooled. Here is the info that matters, and the info that does NOT matter.
1. Info that Matters - Playing Time With Starters
The most helpful information from practice reports and preseason games is simply which players are playing the most with the 1st-team offense. For the most part, this will tell us which players are going to get the volume that matters when the regular season begins.
Some potential caveats to note:
Rookies can sometimes have to earn their way into the starting unit so there may be some noise the first two weeks. When in doubt, think about the draft capital/investment a team has put into a player. For example, if Jeremiyah Love is working behind James Conner and Tyler Allgeier in drills the first week of camp that is not a good reason for his ADP to lower.
Veterans that are trade or cut candidates can sometimes get some early run as an opportunity to prove their value. An example of this was Tyquan Thornton in 2024. He played with the ones through all of training camp with the Patriots. He had basically no track record of success to that point and was cut from the team by Week 7.
In some preseason games, the 1st-team offense does not play at all, while in others they may play as many as 15-20 snaps.
Reliable fantasy starters playing without the 1’s shouldn’t be a huge concern. For example, there was panic when Josh Jacobs got carries in the Hall of Fame game in 2022. This was not relevant at all to his season and he went on to finish as the RB3.
2. Info That Does NOT Matter - Big Plays or Big Performances
A player making a huge play in a practice or a preseason game IS NOT NEWS.
Remember KeAndre Lambert-Smith last summer? His practice heroics in early August got him put on sleeper radars early in draft season. He had only 5 receptions the entire season and was completely irrelevant in all fantasy formats.
Remember when TreVeyon Henderson saw his ADP skyrocket after taking a kick to the house on his first preseason touch? Henderson’s explosiveness was already known at that point. It was essentially being double-counted into his draft cost.
Preseason performance has no regular season predictiveness. When in doubt, trust the WalterPicks projections. Don’t get duped by highlights and hype.
3. Info That Matters - Injuries/Health
Injuries play a major role in fantasy football every single season. They introduce extreme variance, but skilled fantasy managers can prepare for and strategize around that variance.
Training camp is a time when injury news will be abundant, both for new injuries and existing ones. The projections team at WalterPicks spends countless hours every season sifting through injury news to make sure our projections have the best possible assumptions.
Here is a list of prominent fantasy players entering training camp with or recovering from known injuries:
Alec Pierce
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Charbonnet
George Kittle
Tucker Kraft
Malik Nabers
Cam Skattebo
4. Info That Does NOT Matter - Contract Disputes
Every season, NFL players hold out (or in) during the preseason while working to negotiate a new contract with their team. It’s extremely uncommon for these contract disputes to lead to significant (if any) missed regular season games. Players have major financial incentives to not miss games, and the teams have major incentives to win games (which requires their best players playing).
Last season the contract disputes with the most buzz were for James Cook and Jauan Jennings. Both were resolved before the season and had no impact on their availability.
Some extension eligible players to keep an eye on for this cycle include:
Zay Flowers
Jonathan Taylor
Tucker Kraft
Chris Olave
Puka Nacua
ADP Movers 📈📉
This is ADP Movers - a series where we tell you which players saw the biggest shifts in average draft position (ADP) + give you our analysis!
*Player ADPs taken from Underdog best ball drafts
Biggest Draft Risers 📈
| Player | Jul 12 | Jul 19 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara RB | 181.6 (RB54) | 174.0 (RB54) | ▲ 7.6 | +4.2% |
| Jaylen Waddle WR | 44.8 (WR23) | 42.4 (WR21) | ▲ 2.4 | +5.4% |
| Jordan Mason RB | 118.2 (RB40) | 115.8 (RB39) | ▲ 2.4 | +2.0% |
| Ricky Pearsall WR | 98.8 (WR45) | 96.9 (WR45) | ▲ 1.9 | +1.9% |
| Stefon Diggs WR | 135.6 (WR57) | 133.7 (WR57) | ▲ 1.9 | +1.4% |
| Tyjae Spears RB | 156.3 (RB48) | 154.5 (RB47) | ▲ 1.8 | +1.2% |
| Emeka Egbuka WR | 35.3 (WR17) | 33.7 (WR16) | ▲ 1.6 | +4.5% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. WR | 101.2 (WR47) | 99.8 (WR46) | ▲ 1.4 | +1.4% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB | 128.3 (RB42) | 127.2 (RB42) | ▲ 1.1 | +0.9% |
| Isaac TeSlaa WR | 168.3 (WR68) | 167.2 (WR68) | ▲ 1.1 | +0.7% |
| Brenton Strange TE | 151.8 (TE19) | 150.8 (TE18) | ▲ 1.0 | +0.7% |
| Blake Corum RB | 92.3 (RB33) | 91.4 (RB33) | ▲ 0.9 | +1.0% |
Alvin Kamara is the only major riser this week after restructuring his contract with the Saints for 2026. He will make $6 million dollars, with incentives that could carry him to $8.5. The 31 year-old was fairly inefficient on the ground last season, but did still catch a fair amount of passes (#13 amongst RBs in target share).
He should have a pass catching role in the offense but the ceiling here is fairly low. Even if Travis Etienne Jr. were to get hurt, there is almost no chance Kamara could sustain a high volume role at this point in his career.
Biggest Draft Fallers 📉
| Player | Jul 12 | Jul 19 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne RB | 32.5 (RB16) | 34.9 (RB16) | ▼ 2.4 | -7.4% |
| Aaron Jones RB | 117.5 (RB39) | 119.6 (RB40) | ▼ 2.1 | -1.8% |
| Michael Wilson WR | 98.9 (WR46) | 100.8 (WR47) | ▼ 1.9 | -1.9% |
| De'Zhaun Stribling WR | 171.2 (WR69) | 172.7 (WR70) | ▼ 1.5 | -0.9% |
| Travis Hunter WR | 141.5 (WR58) | 142.7 (WR58) | ▼ 1.2 | -0.8% |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB | 55.1 (RB25) | 56.1 (RB25) | ▼ 1.0 | -1.8% |
| Jauan Jennings WR | 151.1 (WR62) | 152.1 (WR62) | ▼ 1.0 | -0.7% |
| Luther Burden WR | 43.1 (WR21) | 44.1 (WR22) | ▼ 1.0 | -2.3% |
| Fernando Mendoza QB | 172.5 (QB27) | 173.4 (QB27) | ▼ 0.9 | -0.5% |
| Jared Goff QB | 108.5 (QB16) | 109.4 (QB16) | ▼ 0.9 | -0.8% |
| Malik Willis QB | 132.3 (QB21) | 133.2 (QB21) | ▼ 0.9 | -0.7% |
| Oronde Gadsden II TE | 148.1 (TE17) | 149.0 (TE17) | ▼ 0.9 | -0.6% |
Travis Etienne Jr. dipped slightly with the contract resolution news for Kamara this week. Kamara’s presence may cost Etienne some reception opportunities, but he remains a well priced option in the back of the 3rd round.
Luther Burden III got leaped by Jaylen Waddle. His ranking is due to a lot of projection for what his target share will look like with DJ Moore gone. He is a player whose ADP could be pretty responsive to news stories out of Bears camp.
