NBA Pick of the Day 5/1

Nuggets ML (+230 on DraftKings)

Explanation

The Nuggets enter Game 6 as 7 point underdogs on the road against the Clippers. The Nuggets played their best game of the series in Game 5 with a scorching 43-point performance from Jamal Murray and despite only getting 13 points from Nikola Jokic.

Walter loves the moneyline value on the Nuggets in Game 6 - giving it an edge percentage of over 10% at +230!

Other reasons to believe in the Nuggets:

• The Clippers lost Game 5 by a significant margin despite shooting 52.4% from the field.

• James Harden’s offensive impact has had a tendency to wane as playoff series go on in his post prime - in Game 5 he had only 11 points on a measly 3/9 from the field.

• Outbursts from Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook indicate the the Nuggets may have finally broken through the Clippers defense who have spent much of the series daring Jokic to beat them with superhuman scoring.

• None of Denver’s starters played 40+ minutes in Game 5 after a grueling Game 4 - its fair to expect the rest to benefit them more than the Clippers who have a much deeper rotation.

Consider parlaying it with…

Total Points Over 211.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

Walter gives a slight edge value to this over at 2.3%. The over on the total hit for the first time in Game 5 with the teams scoring a combined 246 points. If we believe the Nuggets have solved the Clippers defense and will benefit from a lighter workload in Game 5, then a Nuggets win likely results in another high scoring affair.

Parlay odds come out to +470

Find prop values for both games today with the WalterPicks Player Prop Evaluator tool!