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Coaching in professional football has a greater impact on game results than in any other major sport. And turnover in this league is abundant!
In 2026…
10 teams will have new head coaches.
21 teams will have new offensive coordinators.
Understanding the impact of coaches is essential for any high fantasy football player or bettor.
This article will walk through the framework that the WalterPicks Projections Team analyzes coaching impact that you can use to help make better decisions in 2026 drafts.
🚨 Most Important: Play Volume Tendencies and Pass/Run Splits
Coaches’ philosophical tendencies manifest themselves all the time in play volume and pass/run splits. These are two of the most important factors our projections team analyzes when projecting player performance.
Fantasy football is a volume game. More offensive plays mean more opportunities for players to score points. Coaches who favor clock control and heavy run usage tend to produce lower-volume offenses. More aggressive coaches who go for it on fourth down more often tend to run more plays overall.
Pass/run tendencies follow the same logic. More conservative coaches lean toward higher run splits, which means more projected carries for running backs but fewer passing touchdowns and PPR opportunities. More aggressive, pass-heavy coaches create offenses with higher scoring ceilings.
How to Apply This to 2026:
The top 3 offensive play-volume teams last season were the Bears, the Cowboys, and the Rams. All 3 will have continuity at QB, head coach, and offensive coordinator. They all rank in the top 4 for weekly projected play volume in our projections.
The Giants were 8th in offensive play volume last season at 63.8 plays per game. The Ravens were 27th at 57.3 plays. We project a big drop in play volume for New York this season under John Harbaugh at 58 plays per game.
The Bills were 31st in passing rate last season at 50.16%. And they promoted OC Joe Brady to head coach this offseason. We have them projected to be bottom-4 in pass rate in 2026 at 48%.
The Browns were 8th in the league in pass rate at just over 59% in 2025. The Ravens were dead last at 48%. Former Ravens OC Todd Monken is taking over in Cleveland as the head coach. We project a sizable drop in passing volume, putting them 14th at 55%.
The Raiders were 4th in passing rate in 2025 at 61% (partially because they were always down in games). The Seahawks were 30th at 50.29%. As Klint Kubiak takes over as the primary play caller, we project the Raiders’ passing volume to drop to 54.9% - 19th in the league.
Next Level Down: Who Gets the Ball?
Personnel tendencies can reflect a coaching philosophy and be important for projecting volume within an offense.
Does a play caller utilize a diverse backfield or rely more on workhorse backs that he trusts?
Are running backs used as pass-catchers?
How often does the offense use 3-wide receiver sets?
What percentage of snaps feature multiple tight ends?
How much volume do the top targets typically command?
How to Apply This to 2026:
New Steelers HC Mike McCarthy frequently utilized 3-WR sets in Dallas. This offseason, the Steelers acquired Michael Pittman Jr. from the Colts, drafted Germie Bernard in Round 2 of the NFL Draft, and released Jonnu Smith. Expect higher volume projections for Pittsburgh WRs and lower volume for TEs.
The Seahawks were among the teams that used multiple TE sets last season. Former OC Klint Kubiak is moving to a team short on WRs, and deep at TE with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. It is reasonable to expect a higher volume projection for Mayer this season, and both he and Bowers can be fantasy viable.
In 2024, rookie Malik Nabers led the league with a 34% target share. He was complemented by a reliable slot in Wan’Dale Robinson, who was 10th in receptions but 108th in yards per route run. The Titans now have Brian Daboll as their OC, Robinson on the team, and drafted WR Carnell Tate fourth overall. Both could be in for some massive target volume.
The Last/Simplest Layer: Efficiency
Are these coaches good?
Whether a coach can put players in positions to succeed and be effective in their play-calling can lead us to change our projection of a player’s efficiency.
The Adam Gase Effect - when a coaching situation is bad enough to drag down every player's projection.
In 2019-2020, the Jets went 9-23 in two seasons. They finished dead last in points per game in 2020 and 31st in 2019. The top-scoring players in those seasons were Le'Veon Bell (65th overall in 2019) and Jamison Crowder (87th overall in 2020). The situation turned New York into a fantasy dead zone
But this works the other way as well. We can call this the Ben Johnson Effect.
We projected higher point totals for just about every Bears player last season because they were getting what appeared to be an extremely effective play-caller.
They went from 29th in offensive points scored in 2024 to 8th in 2025. Every major offensive player on the team became fantasy viable.
Adam Gase candidates for 2026:
Seahawks - Klint Kubiak gone 📉
Jets - The last time Frank Reich called plays, he was fired 11 games in.
Ben Johnson candidates for 2026:
Raiders - Klint Kubiak in 📈
Chargers - Mike McDaniel coordinated one of the most efficient offenses in the league with Tua Tagovailoa at QB from 2022-2024. Now he gets Justin Herbert
Lions - Drew Petzing led a shockingly viable fantasy offense in Arizona in 2024. Hopes are high that he can help the Lions recover after a rough season with Morton/Campbell.
