I have been 75% correct predicting NFL playoff games for the past four seasons. Here are my picks for this year’s Wild Card Round:

The Rams essentially have bye against the Panthers. There really is not much to discuss here. This is the only extremely obvious game of Round 1.

My Pick: Rams

This matchup is the toughest call of Round 1 in my opinion. The Packers passing game is very underrated, ranking 3rd most efficient this season when adjusting for strength of opponent. On the other side of the game, the Bears run game is underrated, ranking 4th most-efficient in the NFL when adjusting for strength of schedule.

In a game expected to have snow and significant 30 mph winds, I am going with the better rushing offense, taking the Bears at home.

My Pick: Bears

The Jaguars had the 3rd best defense in the NFL this season, but the Bills had the 3rd best offense, and in my opinion have the best offensive line among ALL playoff teams. I do not think this Jaguars defense will stop playoff Josh Allen. I think we are all going to look back on this game and be asking "what might this game have looked like if Travis Hunter was healthy?" I'm taking the better QB and offense here with the Bills.

My Pick: Bills

The Eagles haven’t had the best defense in the NFL this season. But they still have the most talented defensive roster, as well as an offense that likely won’t be stopped by the 49ers defense. They rank 24th this season and will be missing several key starters with injuries. If the Eagles O-line gets healthier they’ve got a great chance to return to the Super Bowl. I'm taking the Eagles.

My Pick: Eagles

No playoff team is more underrated than the Patriots due to the lazy “strength of schedule” narrative. They crushed almost every team they played, and showed they are capable of beating any team. They had the #1 offense WHEN YOU ADJUST FOR STRENGTH OF OPPONENT. I'm taking the Patriots in their first home playoff game in 6 years.

Fun Fact: The last coach to win a playoff game at the Patriots stadium was Mike Vrabel back in 2019, which also happened to be Brady's last game as a Patriot.

My Pick: Patriots

The Steelers just beat the Ravens in a pseudo playoff game and they are still getting no respect. Their offense ranked 14th in efficiency this season, and while their defense was bad, ranking 20th on the season, I do think they will cause a lot of trouble for a Texans offense that has an awful offensive line. I'm taking the Steelers.

My Pick: Steelers

Harris has gone over this mark in 5 of his last 6 games, and he is more than capable of exceeding this prop line in one play. He also has seen 5 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games. We have him projected for 24 receiving yards in a Sunday Nigh Wild Card matchup with New England.

Posted on 1/9/26 at 1:09pm ET. Original line over 15.5 receiving yards at -118.

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