Atlanta Falcons

🎯 Player to Target: RB Bijan Robinson

Current ADP: RB2 (Round 1)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB2

Bijan Robinson feels like a rather obvious target as the guy currently going 4th overall in drafts. But this is a player with a legitimate case to be the 1.01 in 2025!

Robinson was the RB3 in points per game in 2024 and has room to go up another level. There has been a ton of internal chatter from the Falcons about “outlandish” goals for improving their rushing attack this season. Michael Penix Jr. is also something of a wildcard for Robinson’s outlook. If he can take a leap, scoring opportunities could increase for the third-year workhorse back. Robinson was only the RB26 in rushing TD rate last season.

He is also only 23 years old. If the Falcons can improve a bit offensively, we could be looking at the obvious 1.01 in fantasy drafts for a multi-year stretch.

🚫 Player to Avoid: TE Kyle Pitts

Current ADP: TE17 (Round 13-14)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE25

Do not fall for it. It’s over.

2024 was another year with a high air yards share and fantasy disappointment for Kyle Pitts. Even ranking 11th amongst all TEs in receiving TD rate could not net him a higher per-game finish than the TE18. He missed OTAs with a foot injury, and the Falcons have reportedly not offered him an extension, indicating that he may not be a part of their future plans. The ceiling is just not high enough to justify taking Pitts at his current ADP.

💎 Sleeper Pick: RB Tyler Allgeier

Current ADP: RB51 (Round 13-14)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB48 (ceiling RB8)

Walter projects Tyler Allgeier to have a ceiling of RB8, making him one of the highest value handcuffs in the league. His 4.6 yards per carry last season was solid, and the Falcons should once again be top-10 in the league in run rate. If anything happens to Robinson, Allgeier becomes a must-start every week.

Carolina Panthers

🎯Player to Target: WR Tetairoa McMillan

Current ADP: WR29 (Round 6)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR25

By selecting Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, Carolina has presumably found Bryce Young his version of Mike Evans. McMillan was compared consistently to Evans during the draft cycle, as an X-receiver with a massive catch radius and a lengthy matchup nightmare. Panthers head coach Dave Canales excelled at funneling the ball to Evans when calling plays in Tampa Bay. His 136 targets in 2023 were the highest mark since 2018 (when Jameis Winston created insane game scripts).

The draft capital used on McMillan and weak target competition are also strong signals for his rookie production. Walter has his projected ceiling set at the WR13.

🚫 Player to Avoid: Xavier Legette

Current ADP: WR66 (Round 14-15)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR75

Xavier Legette failed to make a strong impact in a rookie season marked by drops, concentration lapses, and a poor connection with Young. His 66 receiving air yards per game was enough volume to flash, but he failed to make any sort of significant impact. He was outplayed by Jalen Coker down the stretch, and the Panthers’ selection of McMillan eighth overall tells us what they think about Legette’s potential as a lead receiver.

Until Legette shows some markers for consistent production, he can probably be left on waivers.

💎 Sleeper Pick: QB Bryce Young

Current ADP: QB24 (Round 15)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): QB22

Young quietly finished his 2024 season very strong, scoring 23+ fantasy points in three of his last six matchups. Over this same stretch, he managed to score six rushing TDs! After a disastrous start, Young has looked like a solid QB2 option in Superflex leagues. With additions to the WR room and another year under Canales, Walter has Young projected for a QB12 ceiling.

New Orleans Saints

🎯Player to Target: RB Alvin Kamara

Current ADP: RB15 (Round 4)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB15

Entering his age-30 season, Alvin Kamara is proving that typical aging curves may not apply to him. He was the RB1 last season in target share, leading to him being the RB5 in PPR fantasy points per game. New Saints head coach Kellen Moore has not been shy about emphasizing Kamara’s importance to their offense, and they made no significant additions to their running back room this offseason.

The only true risk here is Kamara’s age, but as long as he is healthy, he will almost certainly outperform his ADP in PPR formats.

🚫 Player to Avoid: WR Chris Olave

Current ADP: WR30 (Round 6)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR30

It is typically best to try to avoid predicting injuries when drafting for fantasy football, but in the case of Olave, it’s hard not to let his concussion history affect the evaluation. While Olave is set up for excellent target volume entering 2025, his four concussions in three seasons make him somewhat of a landmine pick in Round 6. Those with frequent concussions are much more likely to experience them in the future. The ceiling in this Saints’ offense is also relatively modest, sans Tyler Shough being much better than anticipated.

Unless you are shooting for maximum upside, consider receivers like Jerry Jeudy or Jaylen Waddle in this range instead.

💎 Sleeper Pick: QB Tyler Shough

Current ADP: QB34 (mostly undrafted)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): QB31

This is purely a matter of cost. Shough is unlikely to return tremendous value, but is worth snagging as the QB34 off the board in Superflex leagues. Shough probably has the best chance of being this year’s Bo Nix - an older QB taken questionably high in the draft with decent rushing production and a chance to be a Week 1 starter.

Being arrogant about QB outlooks is a losing game. The cost + opportunity combination for Shough makes him a great sleeper pick in leagues where you need QB depth.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

🎯Player to Target: RB Bucky Irving

Current ADP: RB8 (Round 2)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB10

Bucky Irving was a monster down the stretch last season, exceeding 17+ PPR points in six of his final nine weeks. There are reports that he has improved his pass protection this offseason, which could get him more of a workhorse role. Walter projects his ceiling to be the RB2. This could be the latest you can get Irving in drafts for the next several years.

🚫 Player to Avoid: WR Chris Godwin

Current ADP: WR34 (Round 6-7)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR28

Chris Godwin was the WR2 in points per game before dislocating his ankle in Week 7 of last season and was on track to have the best fantasy season of his career. Despite an excellent target volume last year, we are skeptical that his 0.7 TDs per game (WR6) will hold. At 30 and returning from a surgery, the injury risk is significantly higher for Godwin than for similar receivers in his range. There is also a good chance rookie Emeka Egbuka and/or second-year WR Jalen McMillan eat into this target share.

We project Stefon Diggs to have a higher ceiling than Godwin with a similar floor. If you want to take a shot on a veteran coming off an injury, we recommend targeting Diggs two rounds later.

💎 Sleeper Pick: WR Jalen McMillan

Current ADP: WR62 (Round 13)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR66

Speaking of McMillan…

Excitement for him has been tempered since the Buccaneers drafted Egbuka in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft, but this is a guy who scored 16+ PPR points in five weeks to end the regular season. This stretch was heavily touchdown-dependent (7 TDs in these five games). However, a stretch like this should not be ignored when evaluating WRs this late in the draft. McMillan is worth a stash at this price, especially with Godwin coming back from an ugly ankle injury.