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Fantasy Football Preview: AFC West šŸˆ

Breaking down each AFC West team's fantasy outlook - player to target, player to avoid, and a sleeper pick for every team!

Kansas City Chiefs

šŸŽÆPlayer to Target: WR Rashee Rice

Current ADP: WR21

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR13

Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice was building toward a breakout fantasy season in 2024 before a season-ending knee injury cut his campaign short in Week 4. Rice averaged an impressive 16.5 PPR fantasy points through his first three games, establishing himself as the clear WR1 in Kansas City's high-powered offense.

Rashee Rice Game Log in the WalterPicks App

So, Rice is a must-draft in fantasy in 2025. He's expected to be fully cleared for training camp, putting him on track for Week 1. With his trial date scheduled for January 20, 2026, regarding his involvement in a hit-and-run incident last offseason, a league suspension for the upcoming season appears highly unlikely. This sets the stage for a potential WR1 campaign.

🚫 Player to Avoid: TE Travis Kelce

Current ADP: TE6

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE8

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce showed notable signs of decline last season. He totaled just 823 yards (career-low) and finished as the TE5 in PPR formats (his lowest PPR finish since 2015).

Now approaching 36 years old, Kelce's fantasy outlook dims further with Rice's return. During the three games they shared the field last season, the future Hall of Famer averaged a mere 2.67 catches, 23 yards, and five PPR fantasy points per game. The elite fantasy production that defined Kelce's prime appears to be firmly in the rearview mirror.

šŸ’Ž Sleeper Pick: WR Marquise Brown

Current ADP: WR61

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR64

Fantasy managers didn’t get to see much of Kansas City Chiefs WR Marquise Brown in 2024. He injured his shoulder in the team’s first preseason game and missed the first 15 weeks of the season. However, Brown could be worth a look in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.

As Patrick Mahomes' primary outside receiver, he's positioned to stay fantasy-relevant throughout the year. In his limited 2024 action, the 28-year-old drew at least six targets in three of his five appearances (including playoffs). While Rice's presence may complicate target distribution, Brown's upside as a reliable flex option in 12-plus team leagues remains compelling in this high-powered Kansas City offense.

Los Angeles Chargers

šŸŽÆPlayer to Target: WR Ladd McConkey

Current ADP: WR12

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR9

Los Angeles Chargers WR Ladd McConkey really took off in the second half of the season. He averaged 18.7 PPR fantasy points per game from Week 11 to Week 18 while scoring in double digits in all seven of those contests. Entering his sophomore season, the sky is the limit for McConkey.

Ladd McConkey Game Log in the WalterPicks App

He'll remain the focal point of Los Angeles' passing attack and should build upon his outstanding rookie foundation. McConkey ranked top-10 among all receivers in yards per route run (2.56), yards per target (10.3), QB rating per target (123), and win rate versus man coverage (41%) in 2024. With Justin Herbert leading the offense, the second-year receiver could deliver even better fantasy numbers in 2025.

🚫 Player to Avoid: WR Quentin Johnston

Current ADP: WR63

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR69

Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston bounced back in 2024 after a brutal rookie season. The 6-foot-2 playmaker finished as the WR39 in PPR formats while averaging a solid 11.7 PPR fantasy points per game. However, Johnston was a very touchdown-dependent option in 2024.

He totaled over 52 receiving yards just twice all season and caught more than five passes just once. With the Chargers selecting Tre Harris in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft and bringing back Mike Williams in free agency, Johnston could face more competition for targets in this Los Angeles offense. He’s an easy avoid at his WR63 cost.

šŸ’Ž Sleeper Pick: QB Justin Herbert

Current ADP: QB17

Walter’s Rank (PPR): QB15

Herbert struggled as a fantasy option early in 2024, averaging just 11.8 points through the first six games while throwing fewer than 28 passes in four of those contests.

Everything changed when head coach Jim Harbaugh decided to unleash Herbert's full potential. The Pro Bowl quarterback emerged as a reliable QB1 from Week 8 onward, ranking as the QB7 over the final 11 weeks while averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game during this span. With McConkey established as a true WR1, Herbert possesses the upside to deliver weekly QB1 production throughout 2025.

Denver Broncos

šŸŽÆPlayer to Target: TE Evan Engram

Current ADP: TE9

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE6

The Denver Broncos acquired TE Evan Engram after the Jacksonville Jaguars released the two-time Pro Bowler this offseason. Despite a disappointing 2024 campaign, fantasy managers should expect a significant bounce-back season. He joins a Broncos offense lacking a clear second option behind Courtland Sutton, and Engram is set to be in that ā€œJokerā€ role this season.

Sean Payton has utilized the "Joker" concept throughout his coaching career, moving players around to create optimal mismatches. Given that Bo Nix also ranked 30th in yards per attempt and 27th in air yards per attempt among all QBs last season, Engram could be a PPR cheat code in 2025.

🚫 Player to Avoid: All WRs not named Courtland Sutton

No one really knows how the WR2 role in this Denver offense will play out this season. Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and rookie Pat Bryant could all earn that role throughout the year. Each of those WRs carries substantial risk and should be avoided at their current draft costs.

Despite Mims' solid finish to 2024, he played fewer than 50% of offensive snaps in all 17 games. Vele showed promise as a rookie but saw fewer than five targets in the final five weeks. Franklin was non-existent during his rookie season, while Bryant enters the NFL after posting just one college season over 600 yards.

šŸ’Ž Sleeper Pick: RB J.K. Dobbins

Current ADP: RB41

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB45

The Denver Broncos signed veteran RB J.K. Dobbins last month to complement rookie RB RJ Harvey in the backfield. Dobbins may now command a larger role than many might anticipate, especially following his career-best 2024 performance. The 26-year-old rushed for a career-high 905 yards.

As a result, Dobbins represents excellent late-round value. He averaged 14.8 PPR fantasy points per game with the Chargers last season and could open the 2025 season as Denver's RB1, according to Broncos beat writer Cody Roark. At his current price point, he's an ideal sleeper candidate.

Las Vegas Raiders

šŸŽÆ Player to Target: WR Jakobi Meyers

Current ADP: WR39

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR40

Las Vegas Raiders playmaker Jakobi Meyers continues to be one of the most underrated fantasy WRs. He has delivered consecutive top-24 fantasy WR finishes while posting career-best numbers in 2024 (87 catches, 1,027 yards, four touchdowns).

Jakobi Meyer Player Profile in the WalterPicks App

Yet Meyers finds himself going as the WR39 in drafts. That’s too low for a WR who got a quarterback upgrade (Geno Smith) and faces very little competition for targets in the WR room (Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton). The 28-year-old represents exceptional draft value after scoring at least 13 PPR points in nine of 15 games last season despite having subpar QB play.

🚫 Player to Avoid: TE Brock Bowers

Current ADP: TE1

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE1

Putting Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers on this list was tough because he should once again put up strong fantasy numbers. After finishing as the overall TE1 while averaging 15.6 PPR fantasy points in 2024, his early second-round ADP appears justified.

However, that price tag proves too steep. Drafting Bowers in the second round means passing on players like De'Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, Bucky Irving, and Drake London. While Bowers certainly projects as an elite fantasy option, the opportunity cost is too high. Why invest a second-round pick when you could potentially land George Kittle in the fourth round or T.J. Hockenson in the fifth?

šŸ’Ž Sleeper Pick: QB Geno Smith

Current ADP: QB26

Walter’s Rank (PPR): QB26 (QB12 Ceiling!)

Smith has some sneaky QB1 potential. While he won't generate interest in one-quarterback leagues, he represents excellent value in later rounds of Superflex or two-quarterback formats.

Smith just finished as the QB13 with seven top-10 weekly finishes in 2024. With two reliable pass-catchers (Bowers and Meyers) and familiarity with head coach Pete Carroll from their Seattle days, Smith could emerge as a matchup-dependent QB1 throughout 2025.