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Fantasy Football Preview: AFC South đ
Breaking down each AFC South team's fantasy outlook - player to target, player to avoid and a sleeper pick for every team!
Houston Texans

đŻPlayer to Target: WR Nico Collins
Current ADP: WR7
Walterâs Rank (PPR): WR4
Nico Collins represents exceptional value late in the first round. Despite missing four games due to a hamstring strain, he averaged an impressive 17.6 PPR points per game, recording 68 catches for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns across just 12 contests.

Nico Collinsâ 2024 Game Log
If Collins remained healthy, he would have easily finished as a top-5 fantasy receiver in 2024. His advanced metrics underscore his elite production, as he was third in yards per route run (2.92), fourth in formation-adjusted yards per route run (2.55), and fourth in fantasy points per route (0.61) among all receivers. At 26 years old, he's entering his prime and should be considered a must-draft player in the first round.
đ« Player to Avoid: RB Joe Mixon
Current ADP: RB19
Walterâs Rank (PPR): RB23
Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon was one of the best value picks in fantasy drafts last year. He averaged 17.2 PPR fantasy points per game and finished as a top-12 RB in seven of his 14 games. However, fantasy managers should steer clear of Mixon in drafts this summer.
At 29 years old, Mixon is entering the age where running backs typically decline. The addition of Nick Chubb will likely reduce his workload, and Houston's offensive line remains problematic. The unit ranked 31st in pass-block win rate last season. With the departure of Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil, Mixon's ground game could suffer significantly.
đ Sleeper Pick: WR Christian Kirk
Current ADP: WR57
Walterâs Rank (PPR): WR56
The Jacksonville Jaguars traded away WR Christian Kirk to the Houston Texans this offseason, and this is an intriguing landing spot. He'll serve as the clear WR2 behind Collins while operating primarily from the slot â a role that produced solid numbers for Stefon Diggs in 2024 (47 catches, 496 yards, and three TDs in eight games). C.J. Stroud also ranked 25th among all QBs in adjusted air yards per attempt (6.1) last season, which works in Kirkâs favor.
The Texans WR has the chance to emerge as a reliable flex play throughout the season.
Indianapolis Colts

đŻPlayer to Target: TE Tyler Warren
Current ADP: TE13
Walterâs Rank (PPR): TE11
Rookie tight ends have dominated the position recently, with highlight campaigns from Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers in consecutive years. Tyler Warren, selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, has the best chance to continue this trend.
Despite uncertainty in Indianapolisâ quarterback room, Warren's situation has similarities to Bowers' in Las Vegas last season. Under head coach Shane Steichen, expect the Colts to utilize their rookie tight end extensively in the middle of the field, making him an excellent value at his current ADP.
đ« Player to Avoid: RB Jonathan Taylor
Current ADP: RB7
Walterâs Rank (PPR): RB9
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor put together another dominant fantasy season in 2024. He finished as the RB12 in PPR formats while averaging a strong 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game. However, Taylor was not as strong a consistent fantasy option as some might have thought last year.

Jonathan Taylorâs 2024 Game Log
37.8% of his PPR fantasy points came from the final three weeks of the season (Week 16-18), when he scored 39.8, 27.6, and 25 PPR fantasy points. Before that surge, Taylor ranked as just the RB27, averaging only 13.8 PPR points per game through the first 15 weeks. His limited involvement in the passing game also caps his fantasy ceiling, making his RB7 ADP too rich for most drafts.
đ Sleeper Pick: QB Anthony Richardson
Current ADP: QB19
Walterâs Rank (PPR): QB33 (QB4 CEILING!)
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson made a lot of fantasy managers mad last season. Everyone expected a breakout campaign, and he struggled mightily. He averaged just 12.3 fantasy points in his first six games and was benched later in the year in favor of veteran Joe Flacco.
Once Richardson re-took the starting job, though, his fantasy upside was on display. He scored at least 20 points in three of his final five games. At his current price, Richardson represents outstanding value. His rushing ability alone provides a high floor, and if he can secure the starting job over Daniel Jones, he could finish as a QB1 in fantasy. Walter has his ceiling as the QB4 in 2025.
Jacksonville Jaguars

đŻPlayer to Target: QB Trevor Lawrence
Current ADP: QB23
Walterâs Rank (PPR): QB21
After consecutive top-14 finishes in 2022 and 2023, Trevor Lawrence disappointed in 2024, averaging just 15.2 fantasy points per game while missing seven of the final eight contests due to injury.
The hiring of offensive coordinator Liam Coen should revitalize Lawrence's fantasy value. Coen helped Baker Mayfield achieve a career year in 2024, and with Brian Thomas Jr. developing and Travis Hunter joining the receiving corps, Lawrence has the weapons to return to low-end QB1 status.
đ« Player to Avoid: The Entire Jaguars Backfield
Jacksonville's backfield presents a fantasy nightmare. Travis Etienne struggled as a rusher, Tank Bigsby offers minimal pass-catching value, and rookie Bhayshul Tuten's fumbling issues could limit his opportunities.
With no clear lead back emerging and a three-way timeshare likely, avoid all Jacksonville running backs. All three RBs are ranked outside the top 35 in the WalterPicks app, with Etienne coming as the RB37, Tuten as the RB48, and Bigsby as the RB62.
đ Sleeper Pick: TE Brenton Strange
Current ADP: TE18
Walterâs Rank (PPR): TE16
Brenton Strange flashed potential when Evan Engram was sidelined in 2024, posting 12.4 PPR points against the Colts in Week 5 and a career-high 18.3 points against the Jets in Week 15. With Engram now in Denver, Strange inherits that TE1 role.
Strange will occupy that TE1 role in Jacksonvilleâs offense and has a great chance to break out in his third NFL campaign. Given Coen's heavy utilization of Cade Otton in Tampa Bay's offense last season, the Jaguars playmaker could see substantial targets and represents excellent value at his current ADP.
Tennessee Titans

đŻ Player to Target: RB Tony Pollard
Current ADP: RB27
Walterâs Rank (PPR): RB27
Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard continues to be undervalued in drafts. The 28-year-old has finished as a top-21 fantasy RB in three straight seasons, including an RB21 finish in 2024 that saw him average 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game.

Tony Pollard Player Profile in the WalterPicks App
His reliability as an RB2 option makes him an excellent value outside the top 70 picks. Pollard's consistent production provides a safe floor with upside potential in Tennessee's revamped offense.
đ« Player to Avoid: WR Calvin Ridley
Current ADP: WR32
Walterâs Rank (PPR): WR37
While Ridley has the opportunity to lead Tennessee in targets, his combination of quarterback uncertainty, poor efficiency metrics, and age-related regression risk makes him a player to avoid at his current ADP.
Ridley's success hinges entirely on an unproven first-year quarterback in Cam Ward, who may struggle with the NFL transition. That could mean many inconsistent fantasy weeks similar to 2024. The veteran finished outside the top 40 at the WR position in eight of his 17 games. With Ridley entering his age-30 season and ranking 53rd in fantasy points per route (0.37) last year, itâs going to be hard to trust him as a WR3.
đ Sleeper Pick: RB Tyjae Spears
Current ADP: RB40
Walterâs Rank (PPR): RB31
While Tyjae Spears won't overtake Pollard as the starter, he's positioned for an expanded role. Head coach Brian Callahan praised Spears' "unbelievable offseason" and indicated plans to increase his involvement in both rushing and passing situations.
Given that Spears ranked 16th among all RBs in fantasy points per opportunity (0.95) last season, itâs easy to see why Walter has him as the RB31 heading into drafts. If he can see anywhere from 45 to 55% of the teamâs offensive snaps, he has the chance to be a reliable flex play throughout the season.