Baltimore Ravens

Player to Target: Derrick Henry

Current ADP: RB4

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB7 (He’s our RB3 in STD!)

Despite Derrick Henry being an elder statesman at this point in his career, we are not going to overthink this. Sure he lacks a pass-catching acumen, and sure he is incredibly TD dependent. But he remains in perhaps the best situation to capitalize on his strengths, and is one of the steadiest forces in all of fantasy football. Until he actually shows decline or his situation is altered, he is still a guy to target.

Player to Avoid: Mark Andrews

Current ADP: TE8

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE9

Mark Andrews is going as TE8 right now, which is a bit too rich for our taste. He was steady after not scoring in the first five weeks last season, but relied a ton on scoring (TE1 in receiving TD rate). There has been plenty of speculation this season about his future with the team, and it would not be shocking to see him dealt before the season’s start. With Likely continuing to sap some of his volume, there is just a lot of volatility and risk associated with Andrews these days. We are leaning away.

Sleeper Pick: Rashod Bateman

Current ADP: WR56

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR51

Including the NFL playoffs, Rashod Bateman scored 16 or more PPR points in three of his last six games to end the season. He just signed a lucrative contract extension, and we are projecting his role in the offense to continue to grow. There is some weekly upside here for a very low price.

Cincinnati Bengals

Player to Target: Chase Brown

Current ADP: RB12

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB8

Chase Brown is arguably the most enticing combination of cost and ceiling on this team. The Bengals made no significant running back additions this offseason, signaling a ton of confidence in Brown. He saw elite volume in the back half of last season, ranking 5th in carries and 2nd in targets amongst RBs from weeks 9-17. Even if his price rises as we near the season, he will likely still be worth a swing.

Player to Avoid: Mike Gesicki

Current ADP: TE22

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE22

We do not believe Mike Gesicki is necessarily going to be bad, but we see little reason to prioritize him in this range. He is not expensive, but its hard to project any kind of consistent volume for him in this offense. Cade Otton and Brenton Strange are both going around the same ADP as Gesicki, yet Walter has them projected for significantly higher ceilings.

Sleeper Pick: Andrei Iosivas

Current ADP: WR82

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR87

Andrei Iosivas has shown some flashes throughout his young career, and would immediately enter every start/sit conversation if Higgins or Chase were to get injured. In one career game without Chase, Iosivas saw 8 targets. In 9 career games without Tee Higgins, Iosivas saw 4 or more targets 5 times. Iosivas probably lacks the ceiling to become a fantasy star, but this is a guy worth keeping an eye on and potentially stashing in deeper leagues.

Cleveland Browns

Player to Target: David Njoku

Current ADP: TE9

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE7

If Joe Flacco is the starting QB for Cleveland, then Njoku is going far too late in drafts. In 5 career games with Flacco, Njoku has recorded 30 receptions for 390 yards and 4 touchdowns. This is an average of 15.5 PPR points per game, the same average as Brock Bowers last season!

Njoku has a high volume floor and a borderline elite ceiling in this Brown’s offense. He is a fantastic mid-round target at TE.

Player to Avoid: The QB Room

Current ADP: QB34 (Flacco)

Walter’s Rank (PPR): QB32 (Flacco)

The Cleveland Browns Walter is projecting this team to be among the worst in the league, and the volatility of the room should give everyone pause in season-long formats. Flacco, Pickett, Gabriel, and Sanders are a four headed dragon of volatility and unpredictability. And they all lack any sort of elite upside. We do not recommend targeting anyone in this room, even in superflex leagues.

Sleeper Pick: Cedric Tillman

Current ADP: WR62

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR57

Prior to his injury last season, Tillman showed some serious flashes of talent. In weeks 7-11 when he saw significant volume 18.6 PPR points per game, good for the WR8 over that span. The WR room in Cleveland thins out quickly after Jerry Jeudy. Tillman is very much worth a flier.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player to Target: Kaleb Johnson

Current ADP: RB30

Walter’s Rank (PPR): RB26

Kaleb Johnson is a rookie RB with the skillset be a three-down back AND get goal-line work. We expect he will intially lose work to Jaylen Warren, but the Steelers will run the ball as much as any team in the NFL. Our ranking is pretty closely aligned with his current ADP, but his upside makes him one of our favorite targets in this range.

Player to Avoid: DK Metcalf

Current ADP: WR22

Walter’s Rank (PPR): WR29

DK Metcalf was 34th in fantasy points per game last season, and now finds himself on a run-heavy offense with iffy QB play. He will also be the primary target for opposing defenses, which can result in some low floor weeks for someone with Metcalf's limited skillset. He is undoubtedly in a worse situation than he was last season and is priced too high in drafts.

Sleeper Pick: Jonnu Smith

Current ADP: TE16

Walter’s Rank (PPR): TE15

Jonnu Smith might be a surprising player to call a sleeper considering he was sixth in fantasy points per game last season. But his stock has taken a major hit since being traded to the Steelers. He finished last season with eight consecutive double-digit PPR performances, and has had previous success in Arthur Smith offenses. He is worth consideration as a streamer option early in the season, and at least has the skillset for a more volume-heavy role.