Fantasy Football Analysis for Round 1

Cam Ward - Pick #1: Tennessee Titans

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: QB1

Cam Ward's selection by the Tennessee Titans was predictable for a while now. The Titans recently bolstered their receiving corps by acquiring Tyler Lockett to join Calvin Ridley and Van Jefferson. While not an elite group, these veteran receivers should help Ward transition to the NFL and it is still possible they add more talent later in the draft.

Ward enters the NFL with impressive college credentials, including a 66% completion rate in his final two seasons and 9.5 yards per attempt (89th percentile over the last 20 years). Despite this passing efficiency and his status as the top QB in a weak class, his fantasy outlook remains limited. His minimal rushing production in college (just over 15 rushing yards per game in his final season) isn't expected to improve significantly at the pro level.

As the projected Week 1 starter on a team likely to trail in many games, Ward profiles as a potential streaming option in favorable matchups rather than a consistent fantasy starter in year one. For Dynasty, Ward is locked in as the rookie QB1 and should be a first round rookie selection in all superflex drafts.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍

Travis Hunter - Pick #2: Jaguars

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: WR2

After a blockbuster trade, Hunter finds himself in Duval county playing alongside Brian Thomas Jr. This landing spot leaves a bit of uncertainty considering how poor the Jaguars’ secondary is. However, Liam Coen is an offensive mind, and Jacksonville gave up a haul to acquire the Heisman winner’s services. With over 1,250 yards and 15 TDs in his final season, Hunter clearly has the ability to make big plays and is a real threat in the redzone. With Coen’s versatile offensive scheme, Hunter has an excellent opportunity to thrive in a weak division. In rookie drafts, Hunter warrants strong consideration in the first few picks.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍👍

Ashton Jeanty - Pick #6 Raiders

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: RB1

Jeanty was drafted to one of the best situations possible. The Raiders have zero competition at the position and are going to be a run-heavy offense. In one of the deepest RB classes in NFL history, Las Vegas selected the Boise State product 6th overall.

Jeanty was a hyper-efficient and highly-productive back at Boise State, averaging 7 yards per carry (93rd percentile) on his way to 2,739 total yards and 30 touchdowns in his final season. Jeanty also showed he can excel as a pass catcher, with his 10.8% college target share ranking in the 84th percentile.

He's going to be a top-12 fantasy draft pick in all formats, and for good reason. He is the clear 1.01 selection in all dynasty leagues (including superflex). Jeanty is positioned to be a workhorse with PPR upside from day 1.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍👍👍

Tet McMillan - Pick #8 Panthers

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: WR1

McMillan landed in one of the best spots possible for him. There's virtually no competition in the Carolina WR room, and Dave Canales has experience working with big-bodied WRs (DK Metcalf and Mike Evans). The Panthers will be down in most of their games, which bodes well for McMillan's weekly target share. Given the significant draft capital used (8th overall pick) it's safe to expect Tet to lead the Panthers in targets in his rookie season.

He is a great possession WR, while also possessing an excellent deep-ball skillset with strong size-adjusted speed. These factors make Tet a great match for Bryce Young, and he'll be one of the top selections in rookie drafts and is Walter’s rookie WR1 ahead of Travis Hunter.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍👍

Colston Loveland - Pick #10 Bears

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: TE2

In shocking fashion, Colston Loveland was drafted before Tyler Warren. Loveland has been hand-picked by offensive guru Ben Johnson, and the rookie is going to have a sizable role immediately.

At 6'6, 248 lbs, Loveland has the potential to be an electric TE at the next level. He's not the best blocker, but that's not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to fantasy football. Loveland has an elite ceiling, and he's going to benefit greatly from this landing spot, especially if Caleb Williams takes the expected “year 2 leap” we often see with QBs.

It's worth noting that Cole Kmet is currently in the TE room, but the two TEs have vastly different play styles. The draft capital spent on Loveland, coupled with him being the first TE taken, makes him a high-end rookie draft pick. With the better-than-expected draft capital and landing spot, Loveland is now Walter’s rookie TE1 with a slight edge over Tyler Warren.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍

Tyler Warren - Pick #12 Colts

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: TE1

Tyler Warren was one of the most commonly-mocked prospects to Indy, and those mocks came to fruition on draft night. Warren is one of the most versatile weapons in this class. He saw snaps at QB, WR, and RB during his 4 years at Penn State, and he was the consensus top TE prior to the draft.

He's 6'5, 256 lbs, has excellent hands, and is far quicker than his size would lead you to believe. Warren has less TE competition than Loveland, but the Colts have a sketchy QB room and plan on being a run-first offense. Additionally, the target competition between Pittman, Downs, and Warren is going to be fascinating with all 3 players having a realistic shot to lead the team in targets.

Warren is so talented that he'll still warrant high-end, first round consideration in rookie drafts. We don’t want to overreact to this landing spot like many did with Brock Bowers last season and lose sight of the fact that this is an elite tight end prospect with high-end draft capital.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍

Emeka Egbuka - Pick #19 Bucs

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: WR3

Egbuka lands in one of the more unfortunate landing spots possible for fantasy football. With Evans, Godwin, and McMillan ahead of him, Egbuka has an uphill battle to fantasy relevance, at least early on. His rookie-draft stock takes a sizable dip because of this landing spot, and the fact that he may have a JSN-esque fantasy trajectory.

He's not a huge WR with a 6'1, 202 lb frame, but he is more than capable of making big plays. He's a crisp route-runner, and Baker Mayfield will look for him between the hashes, but his target share won't be immense during his rookie campaign.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👎

Omarion Hampton - Pick #22 Chargers

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: RB2

Los Angeles recently spent money on Najee Harris, so this pick is a bit of a surprise. But Hampton is far superior to Harris, and will almost certainly see the majority of touches.

He's a strong prospect that could have been the RB1 in previous draft classes. He's a bruising back on the ground with a 93rd percentile size adjusted speed score. The Tar Heel recorded over 2,000 all-purpose yards in his final collegiate season, and he's a capable pass-catcher too, his 11.2% college target share ranks in the 85th percentile.

When factoring in the draft capital and skill set, Hampton will warrant top-4 pick consideration in rookie drafts even though Najee could be a bit of an annoyance in year 1.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍 👍

Matthew Golden - Pick #23 Packers

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: WR5

Golden lands in a good spot in Green Bay. With Watson expected to miss a large portion of the season, Golden has interesting fantasy potential in LaFleur's scheme. The WalterPicks team was hoping Golden would land on a team with good infrastructure, and the Packers are exactly that.

Unfortunately, this landing spot doesn't present immediate, consistent fantasy impact thanks to the target competition he will face and the Packers tendency to spread the ball around from week to week, but the long-term potential of Golden is promising. Golden will be a high risk, high-reward player for fantasy thanks to his elite athleticism, but underwhelming college production. He deserves to be in the first round rookie draft conversation in dynasty.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: 👍

Jaxson Dart - Pick #25 Giants

Pre-draft Rookie Ranking: QB2

Dart offers a versatile skill set, as well as some mobility. Dart improved his yards per attempt, completion percentage, and his passing touchdown total throughout each year of his college career. His 10.8 yards per attempt in his senior year ranks in the 97th percentile, and there is a good argument that Dart was the most efficient college QB in this class.

He won't start right away with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on the roster, but spending some time developing under Brian Daboll is going to benefit him greatly. He won't impact fantasy football any time in the immediate future, but has the chance to become interesting during the back-half of this season. Dart could be a value late in round 2 of superflex dynasty rookie drafts.

Fantasy Brain Reaction: Meh🤷‍♂️

Check out our full rookie guide for updated analysis/rankings as the draft continues!