Important Stats:

The Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL at limiting opposing QB production. They are 10th in passing yards allowed per game, and 5th in passing TDs allowed per game. They have also been excellent against opposing running backs, allowing the second-least rushing yards per game. In a game where Josh Allen and James Cook will need to do the heavy lifting, those numbers feel… kiiiinda important.

For Buffalo, these are not so much stats, as much as they are facts. They lost Tyrell Shavers in the Wild Card Round, leaving them with only 3 healthy WRs: Brandin Cooks (old), Khalil Shakir (small), and Keon Coleman (sleepy and likes cookies a lot, also was a healthy scratch in several games this season). This is a difficult situation for the Bills. Couple that with the Broncos stat above, and it seems like Josh Allen will need to go nuclear for them to have a shot.

Keys to Victory:

The Broncos need to limit the amount of times Josh Allen has the ball in his hands. This means establishing an effective run game, converting on third downs, and forcing 3-and-outs. If they do those things, and Bo Nix does not turn the ball over, the Broncos will win this game.

As I briefly mentioned in the stats section of this game, Josh Allen is going to need to put his team in a burlap sack, and carry them up the metaphorical mountain if they are going to win this game. Allen playing very well, combined with the Bills defense forcing turnovers, is the Buffalo formula to advancing to the Conference Championship.

X-Factors:

For the Broncos, the X-Factor is RJ Harvey. He has been a versatile weapon for Denver this season, but has disappeared at times. If he can make a few big plays, protect the ball, and catch passes, the Broncos will be in a fantastic spot.

For the Bills, Josh Allen is the X-Factor. I have mentioned this in both tidbits above, but if the reigning MVP has a bad game, the Bills are going to lose.

Important Stats:

Seattle is elite against opposing RBs. They’re 1st in preventing TDs and 3rd in preventing rushing yards. However, they are last in receptions allowed per game to RBs, as well as 5th worst in receiving yards allowed to the position.

The Niners’ defense is among the most injured in recent memory. They were gashed in their recent matchup with the Seahawks, allowing almost 100 yards each to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker.

Keys to Victory:

Seattle’s key to victory is to play the exact way they did in their last meeting with San Fran. Their defense constricted the SF offense, causing Brock Purdy to have one of his worst games of the season. If the defense can limit the Niners’ typically potent offense, and Sam Darnold manages the game well, the Seahawks win this game with ease.

The 49ers will need to have their sharpest game of the season on both sides of the ball if they are going to win this game. This applies to the players and coaches. With how injured they are, they cannot afford to make many mistakes. Being sharp and getting to Sam Darnold are how San Francisco advances.

X-Factors:

For the Seahawks, the easy X-Factor choice is Sam Darnold, but the fun X-Factor is Rashid Shaheed. Seattle traded for him mid-season, and he has not seen many touches. When he does touch the ball, he almost always makes something great happen. If he can change field position as a returner, and make one big play on offense, the game can turn at any given moment.

For the 49ers, the X-Factor is their pass-catchers. It appears as if Ricky Pearsall will be back for the Divisional Round matchup, and DeMarcus Robinson is coming off his best game of the season. George Kittle is out for the season, so they will need all of their other weapons to be effective, especially when considering the expected game script.

Important Stats:

The Texans are elite at stopping essentially every single position. They are 4th in WR receptions per game, 10th in WR receiving yards per game, 4th in RB rushing yards allowed per game, 1st in RB receiving TDs per game, and top 10 in receptions and receiving yards to opposing TEs. They prevent all kinds of production.

Justin Herbert was sacked 6 times in the Wild Card round, and that was the entire talking point after the game as to why the Patriots emerged victorious. What slipped under the rug was that Drake Maye was sacked 5 times by the Chargers, whose defensive line is good, but not as talented as the Texans defensive line. Can the Patriots’ O-line hold up?

Keys to Victory:

The key to the Texans winning this game is not turning the ball over offensively. If they protect the ball, their defense can win them any game they are in.

The Patriots key to victory is abusing Houston’s weak offensive line, and creating turnovers. These two keys go hand-in-hand, but, in my opinion, whoever wins the turnover battle wins this game.

X-Factors:

The X-Factor for Houston is Will Anderson. If Will Anderson plays at his highest level, the Patriots’ offense may be in for an incredibly tough day. Anderson creating pressure can cause Drake Maye to May(k)e mistakes.

The X-Factor for New England is their entire offense. Houston is without Nico Collins in this game, and their offensive line is terrible. It is crucial that the Patriots capitalize offensively, and put this game out of reach for the Texans. If the Patriots can score 24, they will undoubtedly win as far as I am concerned.

Important Stats:

The Bears are horrendous against opposing WRs, allowing the 5th-most receiving yards, as well as the second most receiving TDs per game to the position. Now, they are taking on Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. gulps

Matthew Stafford is, historically, a poor performer in cold games where he is in the rain or snow. He is 1-9 in his last 10 games with these conditions. At the moment, the expected forecast is 20 degrees, 18 MPH wind gusts, and a 55% chance of snow. Stats and forecast courtesy of @SeahawkNerd on X

Keys to Victory:

The Bears’ key to victory is establishing the run, and limiting the number of opportunities the Rams have on offense. Caleb Williams also needs to be turnover free. The cannot put themselves in a situation where a late-game comeback is needed again. Eventually their luck will run out.

The Rams’ key to victory is exploiting the Bears’ defense. LA’s offense is littered with veterans, and with Stafford at the helm, he can slice and dice this defense as long as his index finger is not a prevalent issue.

X-Factors:

The Chicago X-Factor is not who you may have expected. Their X-Factor is Ben Johnson. His team bailed him out in the first round, after he made some pretty questionable decisions. This week, he needs to be on top of his game, get cute ONLY when necessary, and pick his spots to go deep. His game plan is everything against the Rams.

The Rams’ X-Factor is Matthew Stafford. He suffered a strange finger injury in the Wild Card round, and saw some of his passes get away from him after the fact. He had an insane game-winning TD pass, so there is not an insane amount of concern. But, if it bothers him at all, the conditions of this matchup may make it even more difficult for him to play at the MVP caliber he has been all season.

Bills @ Broncos:

I have long felt that the Broncos are pretty fraudulent, but their home field, as well as top-tier defense are going to be very difficult for the Bills to overcome. With that being said, I am taking the Broncos to LOSE to Josh Allen. There is no way Josh Allen will allow his team to lose in such an important playoff where he does not need to take on Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow.

Score: Bills 27 - Broncos 20

49ers @ Seahawks

This one is not too complicated for me. The Seahawks are going to take care of business at home against one of the most injured teams in NFL HISTORY.

Score: Seahawks 34 - 49ers 17

Texans @ Patriots

This game is going to be disgusting, and not in a remotely fun way. I think the Patriots will get the win, but not in a way that leaves New England fans overly amped up. Nico Collins being out is such a monumental loss for this Texans offense.

Score: Patriots 17 - Texans 13

Rams @ Bears

As much as I hope I am wrong, I think the Bears’ Cinderella season comes to an end this week. The Rams are one of the best-coached teams in the NFL, and I believe their turnover luck runs out here. This prediction is in NO way me trying to jinx LA ;)

Score: Rams 31 - Bears 23