🏈 Monday Movers

Biggest shifts in ADP in the past 7 days + notes from our projections team!

This is Monday Movers - a series where we tell you which players saw the biggest shifts in average draft position (ADP) in the past 7 days + give you our analysis!

*Player ADPs taken from Underdog best ball drafts

Biggest Draft Risers 📈

Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle are all clearly seeing bumps with the departure of Jonnu Smith in Miami. In the 111 plays last season where Waddle and Hill were on the field and Smith was not, the dolphins target shares looked like this:

Hill - 30%

Waddle- 25%

Achane - 22%

Despite Hill seeing the most significant bump in ADP, we project Achane and Waddle to be the primary beneficiaries of Smith’s absence. There could be some opportunity to Waddle’s ADP to continue to rise.

Biggest Draft Fallers 📉

Jonnu Smith being dealt from Miami to Pittsburgh is clearly the biggest driver of ADP shifts this week. He dropped from the TE8 in our rankings to the TE15. From weeks 8-16 in Miami he had a 20% target share and was a top-5 fantasy tight end on a per game basis. We project Pittsburgh to have a much lower passing volume and he will have to deal with competition for targets from Pat Freiermuth.

Do not be surprised if he drops further as the season approaches.

Other Notes:

  • The ADP gap between Bowers/McBride and George Kittle has never made sense to us - expect them to continue to pinch closer together as the season approaches

  • J.K. Dobbins appears to be gaining some slight public confidence as the dust settles on his signing with the Broncos