This is ADP Movers - a series where we tell you which players saw the biggest shifts in average draft position (ADP) + give you our analysis!
*Player ADPs taken from Underdog best ball drafts
Biggest Draft Risers 📈
| Player | Jun 7 | Jun 14 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET | 1.4 (RB1) | 1.2 (RB1) | ▲ 0.2 | +14.3% |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB TB | 59.6 (RB26) | 55.5 (RB25) | ▲ 4.1 | +6.9% |
| Ashton Jeanty RB LV | 11.5 (RB6) | 10.9 (RB5) | ▲ 0.6 | +5.2% |
| Ladd McConkey WR LAC | 38.5 (WR19) | 36.6 (WR17) | ▲ 1.9 | +4.9% |
| Rachaad White RB TB | 119.8 (RB40) | 113.9 (RB38) | ▲ 5.9 | +4.9% |
| Malik Nabers WR NYG | 32.1 (WR14) | 30.8 (WR14) | ▲ 1.3 | +4.0% |
| Zay Flowers WR BAL | 34.5 (WR16) | 33.3 (WR15) | ▲ 1.2 | +3.5% |
| Ryan Flournoy WR NYJ | 171.5 (WR69) | 166.0 (WR67) | ▲ 5.5 | +3.2% |
| Josh Jacobs RB GB | 39.1 (RB18) | 37.9 (RB18) | ▲ 1.2 | +3.1% |
| Xavier Worthy WR KC | 101.2 (WR47) | 98.2 (WR45) | ▲ 3.0 | +3.0% |
| Jonathon Brooks RB CAR | 109.6 (RB37) | 106.6 (RB37) | ▲ 3.0 | +2.7% |
| Quentin Johnston WR LAC | 88.5 (WR41) | 86.3 (WR40) | ▲ 2.2 | +2.5% |
Brayshul Tuten is up 4.1 spots to RB25 on Underdog, jumping past Jadarian Price and Chuba Hubbard. This is largely a reaction to the Chris Rodriguez injury news, but Tuten is the much more exciting option in this backfield. Walter's projections give Tuten an elite RB4 ceiling with Travis Etienne gone from Jacksonville. This is a perfect mid-round RB to prioritize.
Rachaad White is up 5.9 spots to RB38, jumping ahead of Aaron Jones and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The adjustment is likely driven by (likely minor) Croskey-Merritt injury news. White should have real shot at 50-plus catches this season as the primary pass-catching running back in Washington.
Ladd McConkey jumped again, this time over Tetairoa McMillan and Garrett Wilson. The excitement around him in the Mike McDaniel offense continues to grow.
Xavier Worthy is up three spots to WR45, now ahead of Jakobi Meyers, Ricky Pearsall, and Michael Pittman. He is one of the best injury discounts available after playing through a shoulder injury he suffered three snaps into last season.
Biggest Draft Fallers 📉
| Player | Jun 7 | Jun 14 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB ATL | 1.7 (RB2) | 1.9 (RB2) | ▼ 0.2 | -11.8% |
| Chris Olave WR NO | 27.6 (WR11) | 29.2 (WR12) | ▼ 1.6 | -5.8% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB WAS | 116.8 (RB38) | 123.2 (RB41) | ▼ 6.4 | -5.5% |
| Alec Pierce WR IND | 73.2 (WR36) | 75.9 (WR36) | ▼ 2.7 | -3.7% |
| Rome Odunze WR CHI | 56.7 (WR28) | 58.8 (WR29) | ▼ 2.1 | -3.7% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE CLE | 96.3 (TE6) | 99.8 (TE7) | ▼ 3.5 | -3.6% |
| James Cook RB BUF | 11.2 (RB5) | 11.6 (RB6) | ▼ 0.4 | -3.6% |
| Garrett Wilson WR NYJ | 38.2 (WR18) | 39.5 (WR19) | ▼ 1.3 | -3.4% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB ARI | 119.7 (RB39) | 123.0 (RB40) | ▼ 3.3 | -2.8% |
| DJ Moore WR CHI | 54.7 (WR27) | 55.8 (WR27) | ▼ 1.1 | -2.0% |
| Tee Higgins WR CIN | 34.4 (WR15) | 35.1 (WR16) | ▼ 0.7 | -2.0% |
| A.J. Brown WR PHI | 20.6 (WR8) | 21.0 (WR8) | ▼ 0.4 | -1.9% |
Harold Fannin Jr. is down 3.5 spots to TE7, now behind Sam LaPorta. The drop comes from reports that Fannin has been sidelined at OTAs with an undisclosed injury. He missed the final game of last season with a groin injury. This is definitely a story to watch as we approach training camp.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is down 3.3 spots and now outside the top 120 picks at RB40. The dip comes on reports of a soft tissue injury keeping him out of OTAs. The ceiling here is still too low to be targeting him. Croskey-Merritt averaged just a 37.0% rush share and a 3.0% target share last year despite injuries to Austin Ekeler and Chris Rodriguez.
Chris Rodriguez is down once again, now behind Rachaad White and Aaron Jones. He had a procedure on his left foot from an earlier offseason injury and is expected to be fully healthy by the start of training camp. Expect any positive reporting to push him back up boards.
NBA Finals Betting Recap 🏀
The Knicks did it! I’ve taken every chance in this newsletter to victory lap the Knicks future I recommended at the start of the second round…
Knicks to Win the Championship (+800 DraftKings):
“At the start of the second round, I recommended putting some money on the Knicks to become NBA Champions at +800. Their statistical case suggested they should be just as live as the Spurs and Thunder.”
The last time I mentioned this was at the start of the finals where I laid out how you could successfully hedge the Spurs for a guaranteed profit. But I didn’t hedge, as a I stated I wouldn’t. I hope you didn’t either.
Long shot futures like this are a blast and it felt amazing to have some stock in the Knicks during their once-in-a-lifetime run.
Leave me a comment if you tailed!
Prop Results
Over the course of the Finals we shared 9 +Value props to take for the 5 games. Here were the results:
Game 1 · June 3
❌ OG Anunoby Over 1.5 Assists (-179) — Result: Loss
✅ Stephon Castle Over 5.5 Rebounds (+140) — Result: Win
Game 2 · June 5
✅ Dylan Harper Under 3.5 Assists (-154) — Result: Win
Game 3 · June 8
✅ Luke Kornet Over 2.5 Rebounds (+130) — Result: Win
❌ Stephon Castle Over 11.5 Reb+Ast (+105) — Result: Loss
Game 4 · June 10
✅ Miles McBride Under 1.5 Assists (-227) — Result: Win
❌ Victor Wembanyama Under 10.5 Rebounds (+130) — Result: Loss
Game 5 · June 12
✅ Julian Champagnie Over 2 Three-Pointers (-119) — Result: Win
Overall Record: 6-3 (67%)
Change in Units: +1.63u
Results based on unit size:
$20 Bettor is +$32.60
$50 Bettor is +$81.50
$100 Bettor is +$163.00
We hope you all had a tremendous NBA season! We will continue sharing +Value MLB props throughout the summer - which you can find yourself everyday in the MLB Prop Evaluator!
