This is ADP Movers - a series where we tell you which players saw the biggest shifts in average draft position (ADP) + give you our analysis!
*Player ADPs taken from Underdog best ball drafts
Biggest Draft Risers 📈
| Player | Jun 21 | Jun 28 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET | 1.3 (RB1) | 1.2 (RB1) | ▲ 0.1 | +7.7% |
| A.J. Brown WR PHI | 20.3 (WR8) | 19.3 (WR8) | ▲ 1.0 | +4.9% |
| Quentin Johnston WR LAC | 81.3 (WR39) | 77.8 (WR37) | ▲ 3.5 | +4.3% |
| Zay Flowers WR BAL | 32.8 (WR15) | 31.5 (WR14) | ▲ 1.3 | +4.0% |
| Xavier Worthy WR KC | 97.4 (WR45) | 94.6 (WR44) | ▲ 2.8 | +2.9% |
| Josh Downs WR IND | 93.7 (WR43) | 91.1 (WR43) | ▲ 2.6 | +2.8% |
| Tee Higgins WR CIN | 34.6 (WR16) | 33.7 (WR15) | ▲ 0.9 | +2.6% |
| DeVonta Smith WR PHI | 27.7 (WR11) | 27.0 (WR11) | ▲ 0.7 | +2.5% |
| Kyren Williams RB LAR | 32.4 (RB16) | 31.7 (RB16) | ▲ 0.7 | +2.2% |
| Saquon Barkley RB PHI | 13.7 (RB7) | 13.4 (RB7) | ▲ 0.3 | +2.2% |
| Tank Bigsby RB JAX | 171.1 (RB52) | 167.3 (RB51) | ▲ 3.8 | +2.2% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA | 5.3 (WR3) | 5.2 (WR3) | ▲ 0.1 | +1.9% |
Quentin Johnston jumps again this week, this time leaping Courtland Sutton and Alec Pierce. It’s hard to see him climbing much further without some major shakeup to the Chargers depth chart.
Zay Flowers and Tee Higgins jumped up a spot, surpassing Malik Nabers. Flowers is a high floor option who is likely being overdrafted in best ball formats at the moment.
Biggest Draft Fallers 📉
| Player | Jun 21 | Jun 28 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers WR NYG | 31.5 (WR14) | 33.8 (WR16) | ▼ 2.3 | -7.3% |
| Josh Allen QB BUF | 33.8 (QB1) | 34.8 (QB1) | ▼ 1.0 | -3.0% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE CLE | 101.0 (TE7) | 103.9 (TE7) | ▼ 2.9 | -2.9% |
| Jaxson Dart QB NYG | 96.6 (QB12) | 99.1 (QB13) | ▼ 2.5 | -2.6% |
| Brock Bowers TE LV | 20.1 (TE1) | 20.6 (TE1) | ▼ 0.5 | -2.5% |
| Devon Achane RB MIA | 15.8 (RB9) | 16.2 (RB10) | ▼ 0.4 | -2.5% |
| George Pickens WR DAL | 23.1 (WR10) | 23.6 (WR10) | ▼ 0.5 | -2.2% |
| Justin Jefferson WR MIN | 9.7 (WR6) | 9.9 (WR6) | ▼ 0.2 | -2.1% |
| Michael Wilson WR ARI | 93.7 (WR44) | 95.7 (WR45) | ▼ 2.0 | -2.1% |
| Chuba Hubbard RB CAR | 72.3 (RB27) | 73.7 (RB27) | ▼ 1.4 | -1.9% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB WAS | 126.5 (RB42) | 128.8 (RB42) | ▼ 2.3 | -1.8% |
| Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI | 104.9 (RB36) | 106.8 (RB37) | ▼ 1.9 | -1.8% |
In the past 4 weeks nobody has fallen more than Malik Nabers. Here is a summary of his injury timeline dating back to last season:
To stoke the Nabers panic even further, the Giants WR depth chart currently looks like they’re trying to win an immaculate grid game.
WalterPicks CEO Sam Factor thinks that Nabers is starting look more and more like a steal as he starts to drop into the 4th round of drafts.
I remain skeptical about him regaining his typical target share this recently removed from such a complicated injury, even if the Giants misfit WR room doesn’t present any major threats. He will be one of the most controversial picks in fantasy football this season. Keep your eyes glued to the Giants beat for updates once he starts practicing.
Other fallers to note this week:
De’Von Achane was jumped by Kenneth Walker. There is unlikely to be a lot of training camp hype about Achane due to lack of excitement in the Dolphins offense this year. He is already somebody the WalterPicks app has identified as a value, currently ranking as the RB5.
Jaxson Dart was also surpassed by Brock Purdy. Barring any major shakeups he is currently being drafted in the correct range for his projected floor/ceiling.
Best Ball Stacks to Avoid 🏈
Stacking is an essential part of building an optimal best ball portfolio. But in some cases, forcing the stack isn’t as advantageous as you think. These 3 stacks are too pricey at current ADP, and not worth the swing.
QB: Aaron Rodgers (ADP - QB28)
WR: DK Metcalf (ADP - WR36)
Why:
The weekly ceiling with this duo is abysmal. Aaron Rodgers exceeded 25+ points one time in 2025 in a Week 1 shootout against the Jets. The Steelers were 7th in passing rate! This boom rate is unacceptable, even for a QB going this late.
In a similar vain, Metcalf exceeded 25 PPR points 0(!) times last season. He will have increased target competition this year with the Steelers adding Michael Pittman Jr. and Germie Bernard.
Metcalf is not a guy to target in his current ADP range. If you draft him now, you’d only be compounding the mistake by also getting Rodgers late in the draft.
QB: Lamar Jackson (ADP - QB2)
WR: Zay Flowers (ADP - WR14)
Why:
Their playoff schedule is brutal.
Week 15: @ Steelers
Week 16: vs. Browns
Week 17: @ Bengals
Three straight divisional games in cold weather is kryptonite for your advancement odds. Jackson has done an okay job not busting during these matchups in the past, managing to score 15+ points in late season games played in Pittsburgh and Cincinatti the last two seasons. The problem is that his upside is likely capped during the weeks where you’re looking for a 30+ point performance. For how much he costs, you’re better off choosing a different target.
Flowers did have a solid end to 2025, scoring 29+ points in Baltimore’s final game vs. Pittsburgh. His ceiling, however, is not high enough to target in his current range. Walter currently has him ranked as the WR25 as a high floor/low ceiling option - not exactly ideal for hunting spike weeks in best ball tournaments.
QB: Bo Nix (ADP - QB15)
WR: Jaylen Waddle (ADP - WR21)
Why:
Broncos HC Sean Payton notoriously likes to rotate his skill players. Courtland Sutton played 86% of snaps last season but the next highest pass catcher played just 59%. With better depth at the position this season, expect both Sutton and Waddle to command more moderate snap shares than most top options across the league.
Both of these guys are reaches at their current ADP. We project Sutton and Waddle to have very similar floor/ceiling projections, yet you can draft Sutton 35 picks later. Bo Nix is currently ranked as our QB18 and you can currently get higher ranked players like Malik Willis, Tyler Shough, Jordan Love, and Kyler Murray later in drafts.
