This is ADP Movers - a series where we tell you which players saw the biggest shifts in average draft position (ADP) + give you our analysis!
*Player ADPs taken from Underdog best ball drafts
Biggest Draft Risers 📈
| Player | May 31 | Jun 8 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WR A.J. Brown |
25.6 (WR11) | 20.6 (WR8) | +5.0 | +19.5% |
|
RB Jahmyr Gibbs |
1.6 (RB2) | 1.3 (RB1) | +0.3 | +18.8% |
|
WR DeVonta Smith |
31.8 (WR14) | 28.0 (WR12) | +3.8 | +11.9% |
|
WR Chris Olave |
29.6 (WR12) | 27.7 (WR11) | +1.9 | +6.4% |
|
RB Kyren Williams |
33.2 (RB16) | 31.5 (RB16) | +1.7 | +5.1% |
|
WR Terry McLaurin |
47.6 (WR24) | 45.4 (WR23) | +2.2 | +4.6% |
|
WR Ladd McConkey |
39.8 (WR20) | 38.0 (WR18) | +1.8 | +4.5% |
|
RB Sean Tucker |
181.7 (RB55) | 173.6 (RB54) | +8.1 | +4.5% |
|
RB Jonathon Brooks |
114.1 (RB38) | 109.5 (RB37) | +4.6 | +4.0% |
|
WR Tre Harris |
181.8 (WR72) | 174.6 (WR70) | +7.2 | +4.0% |
|
WR Zay Flowers |
35.7 (WR16) | 34.3 (WR15) | +1.4 | +3.9% |
|
WR Christian Watson |
58.8 (WR29) | 56.9 (WR28) | +1.9 | +3.2% |
AJ Brown is the biggest riser this week, jumping 5 spots and 3 WRs after being traded to New England. Devonta Smith is right there behind him, jumping from the WR14 to the WR12. It’s surprising to see this much movement following a trade that had been telegraphed for months. Still, both guys should see a bump in target share and are solid targets in their ranges.
Sean Tucker is a riser who stands out. Its looking more and more likely that he, Gainwell, and Irving will all have a prominent role in Tampa’s backfield. Tucker is a good bet for goal line work, and a hedge against Irving’s questionable shoulder health.
Christian Watson’s extension appears to have netted him some market confidence.
Jonathan Brooks existing and reportedly getting quality work in OTAs nets him a slight bump as well.
And there seems to some general excitement growing around Ladd McConkey’s role in a Mike McDaniel offense.
Biggest Draft Fallers 📉
| Player | May 31 | Jun 8 | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WR Malik Nabers |
25.4 (WR10) | 32.4 (WR14) | -7.0 | -27.6% |
|
RB Bijan Robinson |
1.5 (RB1) | 1.8 (RB2) | -0.3 | -20.0% |
|
WR George Pickens |
22.4 (WR8) | 24.3 (WR10) | -1.9 | -8.5% |
|
QB Josh Allen |
31.0 (QB1) | 33.0 (QB1) | -2.0 | -6.5% |
|
RB Bucky Irving |
50.6 (RB22) | 53.4 (RB23) | -2.8 | -5.5% |
|
RB Jeremiyah Love |
22.0 (RB13) | 23.1 (RB13) | -1.1 | -5.0% |
|
RB Josh Jacobs |
37.5 (RB18) | 39.1 (RB18) | -1.6 | -4.3% |
|
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
112.8 (RB37) | 117.5 (RB38) | -4.7 | -4.2% |
|
RB Devon Achane |
14.6 (RB8) | 15.2 (RB8) | -0.6 | -4.1% |
|
RB Travis Etienne |
28.2 (RB15) | 29.2 (RB15) | -1.0 | -3.5% |
|
QB Jalen Hurts |
69.8 (QB6) | 71.9 (QB7) | -2.1 | -3.0% |
|
RB Derrick Henry |
17.0 (RB11) | 17.5 (RB12) | -0.5 | -2.9% |
Malik Nabers is the biggest faller this week with fears growing that he could miss up to the entire first month of the season. The signings of Odell Beckham Jr. and JuJu Smith-Schuster only add to those concerns. If Nabers can get back to his 30% target share by the fantasy playoffs, then he is a steal at the back of the third round. I’m extremely skeptical.
Chris Rodriguez was another big faller this week after missing OTAs with an undisclosed injury. However, it was reported on Monday that he had a procedure on his left foot from an injury from earlier in the offseason and is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. More positive reporting should swing him back up boards.
Bucky Irving continues to slide after more concerning reports about his health and a 3-way backfield in Tampa. He’s now being drafted behind guys like D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery.
3 Underrated Best Ball Stacks to Target Right Now
QB - Jacoby Brissett - ADP QB30
WR - Michael Wilson - ADP WR43
I will continue to point out that Brissett had 6 weeks last season with 20+ points. It is not a given that Carson Beck takes the job from him. If he is the starter in the playoffs, the Cardinals have an excellent schedule. I like Michael Wilson over Marvin Harrison Jr. as his counterpart in this stack. He was straight up better last season and being drafted 10 WRs later.
QB - Fernando Mendoza - ADP QB27
WR - Jalen Nailor - ADP WR61
The Raiders WR room is thin. Between Donte Thornton, Tre Tucker, and Jalen Nailor, I like Nailor best to become Mendoza’s go-to target late in the season. Tucker relied a lot on big connections downfield last year, while Thornton never flashed with conistency. Nailor has experience in Kubiak’s system and has potential for late season spike weeks if Mendoza plays well once he takes the job.
QB - Deshaun Watson - ADP QB32
WR - KC Concepcion - ADP WR51
WR - Denzel Boston - ADP WR64
This one is practically free.
Fannin Jr. was a target hog last season but doesn’t fit the profile of TE that I like to target in best ball (prefer to go elite or to punt). Watson has been terrible since 2020, but the Browns were a high pass volume team last season. I’m betting that if Watson is making any connections late in the season it’ll be with one of the two rookies rather than Jerry Jeudy.
