🏈 Player Prop Report Card

Week 1 Performance - Every week we publish write-ups for prop picks we think have a high value. This is how we performed to kick off the 2025 season!

Author

Patrick McDonnell
September 09, 2025

How Our Prop Picks Work

Every week our projections team identifies props that we see as having excellent edge value, writes up explanations for each of them, and will ping premium users about the opportunity. These are posted in our discord channel and then highlighted in the prop evaluator as soon as they are published.

 We keep track of these bets over time and report results to you every week in this newsletter. Here’s how we did in Week 1:

Week 1 Results:

  • Overall Record: 7-5 (58.3%)

  • Change in Units: +0.76

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$15.20

    • $50 Bettor is +$38.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$76.00

Results from Previous Seasons:

2024 Results

  • Overall Record: 163-126 (56.4%)

  • Change in Units: +23

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$460.00

    • $50 Bettor is +$1,150.00

    • $100 Bettor is +$2,300.00

2023 Results

  • Overall Record: 160-120 (57.1%)

  • Change in Units: +45.87

  • Results based on unit size:

    • $20 Bettor is +$917.40

    • $50 Bettor is +$2,293.50

    • $100 Bettor is +$4,587.00

Prop Summary/Notes

  • ✅ Bijan Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (15% EV)- Result: 6

  • ✅ Brenton Strange Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (3.6% EV)- Result: 59

  • ✅ Jonathan Taylor Over 1.5 Receptions (8.4% EV)- Result: 3

  • ✅ Keenan Allen Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (11.2% EV)- Result: 68

  • ✅ Ricky Pearsall Over 3.5 Receptions (10.6% EV)- Result: 4

    • Pearsall scraped this one out despite being hyper-efficient with his touches Week 1. With injuries to Kittle and Jennings, expect this line to jump in the coming weeks.

  • ✅ Trey Benson Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (13.4% EV)- Result: 69

    • Benson looks poised to have a much more significant role than last season, even without the Cardinals securing the big early lead we suspected they might.

  •  ✅ Rome Odunze Over 3.5 Receptions (7% EV)- Result: 6

  • ❌ Ashton Jeanty Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (10.5% EV)- Result: 38

    • Jeanty certainly got the volume to break this but the Patriots defense was able to hold him to just 2.0 YPC.

  • ❌ Braelon Allen Over 28.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (9.1% EV)- Result: 9

  • ❌ George Pickens Over 4.5 Receptions (9.5% EV)- Result: 3

  • ❌ Nico Collins Over 5.5 Receptions (11.2% EV)- Result: 3

  • ❌ Ollie Gordon II Over 23.5 rushing yards (13.4% EV)- Result: 4

    • Gordon II got some carries in garbage time but the Dolphins hardly possessed the ball enough to get any kind of run game going. Their backfield recorded only 9 carries in the Week 1 blowout.

Every week the Transactions Tool in the WalterPicks app populates with recommended adds, drops, and trades that you should be considering to improve your fantasy teams. All recommendations come from our transactions team and are powered by Walter’s projections carrying out thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.

Some recommended pickups for this week include:

  • Keenan Allen

  • Marquise Brown

  • Trey Benson

  • Harold Fannin Jr.