Best Prop Bet for Game 1 🏀

NBA Finals 🏆 - Best bets for Pacers vs. Thunder

Author

Patrick McDonnell
June 05, 2025

Aaron Nesmith Under 12.5 Points (-125 on ESPN Bet)

Nesmith’s point totals in his last 10 games (seen in the WalterPicks App)

Explanation

Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith has gone under this total in 4 of his last 5 games, including two games where he scored only 3 and 8 points. He has also been battling an ankle injury that led to him playing his lowest minute totals the final two games of the Knicks series. The Thunder have also been the number one defense in the NBA this playoffs, so we do not expect this matchup to be more conducive to scoring.

Walter has this line on ESPN Bet at a +EV Edge value of 4.3% and most other books have this total set at 11.5 points. There is always a chance that Nesmith has an out of body scoring experience (see Game 1 vs. the Knicks in the last series), but we feel comfortable recommending this prop at this value.

Line shopping tool in the WalterPicks app - there is a significant value on the ESPN Bet line

Other Game 1 Bets To Consider:

Pascal Siakam Over 2.5 Assists (-154 on DraftKings)

  • Hit in 8 of his last 10 games

  • EV Edge value of 2.5%

Tyrese Haliburton Over 1.5 Steals (+180 on DraftKings)

  • Hit in in last 5 games

  • EV Edge value of 1.7%

+EV prop values are shifting constantly. Find them in real time using the WalterPicks Player Prop Evaluator!