🏈 Best Ball Draft Trends: Key Insights From 150+ Drafts

After completing 150-plus best ball drafts, several clear patterns have emerged that will shape optimal tournament strategies for 2025. This is a summary of our observations with our best advice on how to exploit the meta at this point in the draft cycle.

Running Back Value Is Everywhere

Wide receivers continue to dominate early draft selections, creating exceptional running back value throughout the first three rounds. Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson consistently go in the top four picks, but elite options like Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, and Christian McCaffrey are consistently available in the back half of round one. Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and De'Von Achane routinely fall to round two. Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown are available in round three across every draft.

This trend makes it extremely easy to secure one to two elite running backs with your first three to four picks. See the screenshot below of the first 3 rounds in my latest Best Ball Mania draft over on Underdog

Zero-RB Strategy Remains Tournament Viable

Despite it being easy to stock up on elite talent early, Zero-RB maintains its tournament appeal, particularly if running back injury rates increase after a mild 2024.

A quick reminder of the game theory behind Zero-RB strategy: it leans into the idea of "anti-fragility" which are things that gain from disorder. Anti-fragile rosters get better as injuries occur at the RB position while all other teams in your league get worse. It is a high risk, high upside strategy - perfect for massive tournaments against hundreds of thousands of other teams.

Best Ways to Execute Zero-RB

Target running backs with at least two of these three characteristics:

• A potential path to 50-plus receptions

• Attachment to good offense for touchdown potential

• One injury away from workhorse role

Early Zero-RB Options (Take at least one by round 8 at the latest):

• RJ Harvey - ADP: RB17, 54.3 overall

• TreVeyon Henderson - ADP: RB21, 64.5 overall

• James Conner - ADP: RB22, 66.5 overall

• David Montgomery - ADP: RB23, 70.5 overall

• Kaleb Johnson - ADP: RB25, 75.7 overall

• D'Andre Swift - ADP: RB27, 80.5 overall

• Aaron Jones - ADP: RB28, 82.4 overall

Later Round Zero-RB Targets:

• Cam Skattebo - ADP: RB31, 100.1 overall

• Jordan Mason - ADP: RB32, 100.5 overall

• Jaylen Warren - ADP: RB33, 103.3 overall

• Travis Etienne Jr. - ADP: RB37, 117.3 overall

• Rhamondre Stevenson - ADP: RB40, 126.7 overall

• Trey Benson - ADP: RB43, 139.6 overall

Tight End Strategy: Elite or Punt

The optimal TE strategy remains simple: secure elite tight end production or punt the position entirely and draft three late options. A clear tier break exists after the top three tight ends (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle). Kittle is the best value pick of the three, consistently going 1-2 rounds later than both Bowers and McBride despite averaging the most fantasy points per game among tight ends in 2024 .

Late-Round High-Ceiling Tight Ends to Target:

• Isaiah Likely - Top-six tight end upside if Mark Andrews gets hurt, capable of spike weeks even if Andrews is healthy

• Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Brenton Strange - Established veterans with upside

• Chig Okonkwo, Jatavion Sanders, Juwan Johnson, Theo Johnson - Starting tight ends available in final rounds

Players That Are Clearly Going Too Late

• George Kittle - Clear value compared to top-2 tight ends given his recent performance and situation

• Jalen Hurts - The one to two round gap between him and Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson is puzzling (ADP: QB4, 50.4 overall vs. Allen's 34.3 and Jackson's 36.5)

• Drake Maye - Has rushing upside plus clear path to improved passing efficiency

• Hollywood Brown - Big injury discount for a guy with big spike week potential

• Michael Wilson - Should play nearly every snap and has a great fantasy playoff schedule

• Darius Slayton - We project improved QB play for the Giants this season making all of their receivers a bit underrated right now

• Trey Benson - One of my personal favorite Zero-RB targets - he is an injury away from being a top-12 fantasy RB and the coaches have made clear they plan to get him more involved this year even without an injury to James Conner

• Travis Etienne Jr./Bhayshul Tuten - One of these guys is going to absolutely smash their ADP and have a huge receiving role in the offense (I expect Tuten to rise very soon)

• D'Andre Swift/Roschon Johnson - Similar to the Jaguars RBs, one of these pass-catching Bears RBs will smash their current cost as a part of a Ben Johnson offense

Players Being Faded After a Disappointing 2024

• Tyreek Hill - Round 3-plus

• Kyle Pitts - Round 15-plus

• Sam Darnold - Round 16-plus

• Keenan Allen - Round 16-plus

The public is very out on these players. We are fading Pitts and Darnold but still think Hill and Allen offer sneaky value at significantly reduced costs. Both are still capable of the types of spike weeks that are critical for success in this format.

Our Draft Tool for 2025 is live! Hop in now to mock different builds and see our projections!