We are officially in the thick of draft season! The next 10 days are when a majority of fantasy football drafts will take place and now is absolutely the time to sync your leagues to the WalterPicks app and test the draft mode!

The custom rankings + LIVE draft insights helped over 80% of synced users make their playoffs last season.

We have also launched multiple new guides in the app this week - including the Advanced Strategy Guide - which deep dives into every possible edge you could possibly get in a fantasy football draft.

It is the result of months of work from our projections team and is the best possible way to prepare strategically for upcoming drafts. Just check for the latest app update to get access!

To get a sneak preview of the type of content that is in the guide, here is an excerpt from the Injuries + Recency Bias chapter:

Injuries and Recency Bias

Injuries play a major role in fantasy football every. Single. Season. People will often point to injuries as their argument for why fantasy football is “all luck,” and while injuries certainly do introduce some amount of luck into the game of fantasy football, injuries are something skilled fantasy managers can prepare for and strategize around.

We do not know which players will get hurt this season, but here is what we do know:

1. Fantasy managers generally overestimate their ability to predict injuries.

2. Every NFL player has significant injury risk, football is one of the most injury-prone sports in the world.

3. Certain positions have higher injury risk than others, but there can be a ton of year-to-year variance. I dug into the data over the last 15 years, here is the breakdown of injury rates by position:

4. Backups or “handcuff” running backs benefit disproportionately to backups at other positions in the event of injuries. This is core to the thesis of the “Zero-RB” strategy we will discuss in the next section.

5. Some players are already actively injured and at risk to miss games this NFL season. It’s important to be up-to-date with each injury ahead of your draft and to tread very carefully with these players. The WalterPicks app updates every day (sometimes every minute) for injury-related news.

Recency bias is a common psychological bias where people put too much weight on what happened most recently instead of looking at the full picture. 

Once again this year the masses are falling victim to recency bias by assuming injuries from last season (which players have fully recovered from) are “guaranteed” to lead to injuries again this season. 

This psychological trap creates some of the best draft values every single year. While your league mates are still haunted by last season's disappointments, you'll be scooping up players at massive discounts who are primed to bounce back. 

To be clear: I am NOT saying these players won’t get hurt, I am simply saying their likelihood of injury is more similar to the rest of the players in the NFL than people think. Remember, every NFL player has significant injury risk, football is one of the most injury-prone sports in the world.

Here are 4 prime “injury prone” targets I will be aiming to snag as league-winning values in 2025…

Click here to see the 4 targets and read the rest of the article in our Advanced Strategy Guide!