2025 Rookie Draft Guide: TEs

We are continuing our rookie guide preview series with a look at TEs. 

When it comes to wide receivers and tight ends, here are the metrics we have found to be most predictive of fantasy football production:

1. Draft capital - how early a player gets picked in the NFL draft. We will be using projected draft capital from mock drafts prior to the NFL draft.

2. Breakout age - Breakout age is the age at which a receiver reaches a 20% dominator rating for the first time. Dominator rating is the percentage of a team’s total receiving yards and touchdowns.

3. Yards Per Team Pass Attempt - the amount of receiving yards a receiver or tight end produced per pass attempt thrown by their team over the course of a season.

4. Speed score  - a metric that shows us a player’s size adjusted speed. This is more predictive for tight ends than wide receivers. This is because it signals us that a tight end offers pass-catching upside at the position. 

We will also be providing context about the types of roles different receivers and tight ends played in college to help us better evaluate the roles and landing spots that will maximize their chances of success in the NFL.

2025 TE Rankings

TIER 1

Player: Tyler Warren

Rank: TE1

Writeup: Warren is one of the most versatile weapons in this class. He saw snaps at QB, WR, RB during his 4 years at Penn State, and he’s the top TE on the board. He’s 6’5, 256 lbs, and has excellent hands, and is far quicker than his size would lead you to believe. Unfortunately he did not partake in the combine so we don’t have an official speed score for him, but it is safe to say his athleticism is not a concern.

It’s unfortunate for Warren that he’s the top TE the year after Brock Bowers took the league by storm. But, Warren does appear to be a player that will be excellent, regardless of landing spot. If he ends up on an electric offense, his ceiling will be very high, very quickly. Warren had a 2.8 career best yards per team pass attempt in college, which ranks right up there with the best receivers in this class.

When looking at tight ends since 2003 who have been selected in the first round with at least a 2.3 career best yards per team pass attempt we get ourselves a short but elite list: Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, and Tyler Warren. The only knock on Warren’s resume is he really only had one great season, in 2024 he compiled over 1,200 yards after having under 450 in his first three years. This gave him a breakout age of 21.3, ranking in the 40th percentile.

He may not give us a record breaking rookie campaign like Brock Bowers (that would be expecting a lot) but given he is a lock to get picked in the first round, Warren is one of the safest rookies in this class from a fantasy perspective. He will instantly be a top-10 TE in fantasy football and it won’t be surprising if he climbs into the top-5 sooner rather than later.

Top-3 Player Comparisons: Dallas Clark, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham

Player: Colston Loveland

Rank: TE2

Writeup: At 6’6, 248 lbs, Colston Loveland has the potential to be an electric TE at the next level. He’s not the best blocker, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to fantasy football. He didn’t put up Brock Bowers or Tyler Warren yardage numbers in any year of his collegiate career at Michigan, but it is worth noting that he only played 10 games this most recent season. And his 1.9 yard per team pass attempt in that final season is very strong. 

Like Warren, Loveland opted not to partake in the combine so we do not have a speed score for him but that is not a major concern. Unlike Warren, Loveland broke out at a young age, his 19.4 breakout age ranks in the 87th percentile.

He has spectacular-catch ability, making him an intriguing redzone threat despite only scoring 11 total touchdowns in college. He is not as “QB-proof” as Brock Bowers and Tyler Warren, but in the right situation he will offer elite fantasy upside. He’s consistently going in the middle of the first-round in mock drafts as the second TE after Tyler Warren. If that first round draft capital comes to fruition, we are looking at 2 potential stud fantasy tight ends from this draft class. 

Top-3 Comparisons: T.J. Hockenson, Jimmy Graham, Coby Fleener

TIER 2

Player: Harold Fannin Jr.

Rank: TE3

Writeup: Fannin is coming off a monstrous season at Bowling Green, where he recorded 117 receptions for 1,555 yards, and 10 touchdowns. For context, that was 236 more receiving yards than the next highest player in this class, Tet McMillan. He finished the season with a ridiculous 38% target share and his 3.7 yards per team pass attempt is the highest we have seen since at least 2002. The level of competition at Bowling Green is really the only concern with Fannin, and while that is a valid concern, we still cannot ignore arguably the most productive collegiate season from a tight end in history. He also put up serious numbers against ranked competition in matchups with Penn State and Texas A&M, which lessens the concern around the level of competition.

Surprisingly, Fannin does not jump off the page in terms of athleticism, his 96.1 speed score ranks at exactly the 50th percentile. The unreal production is still too good to ignore, especially considering his 19.1 breakout age ranks in the 92nd percentile. He’s our favorite sleeper in this class heading into the draft, and is currently projected to get picked in round 3.

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Dennis Pitta

TIER 3

Player: Elijah Arroyo

Rank: TE4

Writeup: 

At 6'5, 250 lbs, Elijah Arroyo has the physical build of an NFL tight end, but his collegiate production leaves much to be desired. His 1.2 yards per team pass attempt is mediocre compared to the elite prospects in this class, and his breakout age of 21.4 (36th percentile) is nothing to get excited about. While his impressive 16.9 yards per reception (93rd percentile) highlights his big-play ability, Arroyo's injury history is concerning—he played just 17 college games over his career, with minimal production in his first two seasons at Miami before finding success with Cam Ward at quarterback.

Arroyo is the definition of a developmental prospect who will likely be selected in the third round. His 7 touchdowns in his final season offer a glimpse of his red zone potential, but fantasy managers shouldn't expect immediate returns. He'll be off the redraft radar entirely for 2025, but remains an intriguing late-round lottery ticket in dynasty rookie drafts. Given his limited college sample size and athletic upside, Arroyo could develop into a fantasy-relevant tight end down the road, but patience will be required.

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Tyler Higbee, Jeremy Ruckert, Tyler Kroft

Player: Mason Taylor

Rank: TE5

Writeup: 

Mason Taylor's draft stock appears to be outpacing his collegiate production, with an uninspiring 1.0 yards per team pass attempt and a disappointing 10.4 yards per reception (16th percentile). Despite being just 20 years old, Taylor never truly had a breakout season in college, failing to record more than 3 touchdowns in any campaign. At 6'5, 250 lbs, he has the NFL-ready frame teams covet, but he did not partake in the combine so we do not have a speed score to evaluate.

Expected to be selected on day two of the NFL Draft (rounds 2-3), Taylor represents a long-term investment rather than an immediate contributor. He falls well short of the elite tier occupied by Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland, placing him firmly off the redraft radar for 2025. While landing spot could elevate his stock, Taylor's limited collegiate production makes him nothing more than a late-round flier in dynasty rookie drafts. Fantasy managers should temper expectations and prepare for a multi-year development timeline before seeing any meaningful returns. 

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Luke Schoonmaker, Luke Musgrave, Cade Stover

See the rest of the rankings in the WalterPicks App…