2025 Rookie Draft Guide: QBs

Identifying potential rookie stars and avoiding rookie busts is the ultimate key to dominating a dynasty fantasy football league. It’s becoming increasingly important for normal season-long fantasy leagues, too. Just ask fantasy managers who selected Jayden Daniels last season.

Here is the data and process to rank rookie QBs on their likelihood to provide immediate fantasy value within their first 3 years as a pro:

Quarterbacks

The QB position is, by far, the most difficult to rank from a purely analytical perspective when it comes to college prospects. The 2 most predictive college metrics for fantasy football production are:

1. Draft capital - how early a player gets picked in the NFL draft. We will be using projected draft capital from mock drafts prior to the NFL draft.

2. Rushing yards per game 

But what about, uh, passing? We hear you. Passing of course matters, but draft capital is ultimately helping us capture a quarterback's passing ability better than any combination of passing metrics can. NFL teams are not going to take a QB early in the draft if they don’t think he can pass. Still, we will be referencing college completion percentage and yards per attempt, as well as traits like arm strength, throughout our QB analysis. This will give us a sense of what each of the QB’s in this class bring to the table, as well as the types of passers they could become in the NFL.  

Rushing production is such a powerful metric to consider because:

• It’s super valuable for fantasy football - rushing yards are worth 2.5x more fantasy points than pass yards in most fantasy leagues. The league-winning fantasy QB’s give us upside through their passing, as well as a steady floor via rushing (i.e. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson).

• It’s sticky from college to the pros. QB’s that don’t run much in college rarely run much in the NFL and vice versa.

We will update the rankings after the draft once we know the draft capital and landing spot of each prospect for certain.

2025 QB Rankings

TIER 1

Player: Cameron Ward

Rank: QB1

Writeup:  Cam Ward is likely going to be the number one pick in the NFL draft, as he’s the top QB in a weak QB class. He’s got top end arm strength, completed over 66% of his passes in his final 2 seasons, and his 9.5 college yards per attempt ranks in the 89th percentile over the last 20 years. His draft capital and passing efficiency suggest he will be a capable passer at the NFL level. Unfortunately, he does not offer much as a rusher, averaging just over 15 rushing yards per game in his final season. His rushing ability isn’t going to make him a top-end fantasy asset, but if he goes to a team that can surround him with talent, he’ll offer intriguing upside as a passer from the jump.

Right now it appears likely he lands with the Titans who hold the first overall pick, a landing spot that would make him a not-so-exciting fantasy option in Year 1.

Top-3 Player Comps: Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Zach Wilson

TIER 2

Player: Jaxson Dart

Rank: QB2

Writeup: Dart’s stock has been one of the more interesting aspects of the 2025 draft process. Considering how important draft capital is, where and when Dart ends up being drafted is going to end up having a major impact on his potential for immediate fantasy value.

Dart does not have top-end speed, but he did average 38 rushing yards per game in his final season at Ole Miss. He is capable of evading pass-rushers and scampering for chunks here and there, but his rushing is unlikely to be something that makes him an elite fantasy asset, at least at the beginning of his career. 

Dart improved his yards per attempt, completion percentage, and his passing touchdown total throughout each year of his college career. His 10.8 yards per attempt in his senior-year ranks in the 97th percentile - there is a good argument that Dart was the most efficient college QB in this class. He’s projected to go as early as the back-end of the first round, but has been more commonly mocked as an early second-round pick. Dart appears to be the most underrated passer in the class heading into the draft.

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Bo Nix, Sam Howell, Carson Wentz

Player: Shedeur Sanders

Rank: QB3

Writeup: One of the most polarizing prospects in this class is Shedeur Sanders who could be a top-5 pick in the draft. He’s drawn a range of varying comparisons and analyses. What’s factual is that he’s thrown for over 7000 yards and 60 touchdowns across his two seasons at Colorado while completing an impressive 74% of his passes in his final season. But, he also averaged under 1 rushing yards per game despite his 90th percentile speed and his 78.2 quarterback rating ranks in just the 66th percentile.

That rushing production is disappointing for fantasy to say the least, but it also may not have been entirely his fault. The offensive line for Colorado was arguably their biggest weakness throughout his tenure. In 2024 alone, he was sacked a whopping 42 times. This is one of those rare situations where there may be potential for rushing upside at the NFL level despite the lack of rushing production in college.

Some scouts have argued that his lack of prolific-collegiate o-lines makes him more pro-ready than some of the other prospects in this class. He can clearly produce without help up front, and that could lead to some immediate success for the weapons around him upon his arrival. 

Most scouts laud his pocket-passing, as well as his toughness. If those traits transfer over into the NFL, Sanders has the potential of making an immediate impact. Inversely, his arm strength isn’t impressive and that could really limit his fantasy ceiling. It remains to be seen just how much that’ll impact his ability to play at the next level, but it’s certainly worth noting. From an analytical standpoint, Sanders fails to show any elite college efficiency or rushing upside, making him appear a bit overrated heading into the NFL draft.

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Teddy Bridgewater, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix

TIER 3

Player: Jalen Milroe

Rank: QB4

Writeup: Jalen Milroe isn’t expected to be picked in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft, but if he finds his way into a starting NFL role, he will have some real fantasy football upside thanks to his rushing ability. Milroe averaged 55 rushing yards per game in his final season, amassing over 1,500 rushing yards over the course of 4 seasons at Alabama. 

He’s got upside as a passer too, his 9.5 yards per attempt ranks in the 88th percentile and he completed over 64% of his passes in his final 2 seasons. It’s hard to read too much into these numbers, though, since he was surrounded by such strong talent at Alabama. 

Milroe is unlikely to cost much in dynasty rookie drafts, making him an intriguing dart throw in later rounds thanks to his upside as a rusher. The floor is low, but the fantasy upside is certainly there.

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Malik Willis, Joshua Dobbs, Jalen Hurts

TIER 4

Player: Quinn Ewers

Rank QB5

Writeup: 

Quinn Ewers enters the NFL draft with significant questions surrounding his decision to declare this year. Despite playing with elite talent at Texas, his production was underwhelming, with a QB rating in just the 53rd percentile. His projected fourth-round draft capital reflects scouts' concerns about his readiness for the NFL level.

Ewers offers virtually nothing as a rusher, averaging negative rushing yards per game (-1.6) despite having some speed. With 31 passing TDs against 12 interceptions in his final season, Ewers lacks the efficiency or dual-threat capability needed for fantasy relevance. Barring an unexpected rise up draft boards or landing in an ideal situation, Ewers should be considered a low-priority dynasty stash with minimal short-term fantasy potential. Ewers does deserve some respect for his impressive hair style, he’s in the top tier of hair style in this quarterback class at least. Unfortunately we doubt that will help him score fantasy points.

Top-3 Comparable Prospects: Mike White, Davis Webb, Jacob Eason

Rankings and write-ups for every QB prospect AND fantasy rankings for every position can be found in the WalterPicks App!