We are continuing our rookie guide preview series with a look at WRs. 

When it comes to wide receivers and tight ends, here are the metrics we have found to be most predictive of fantasy football production:

1. Draft capital - how early a player gets picked in the NFL draft. We will be using projected draft capital from mock drafts prior to the NFL draft.

2. Breakout age - Breakout age is the age at which a receiver reaches a 20% dominator rating for the first time. Dominator rating is the percentage of a team’s total receiving yards and touchdowns.

3. Yards Per Team Pass Attempt - the amount of receiving yards a receiver or tight end produced per pass attempt thrown by their team over the course of a season.

4. Speed score  - a metric that shows us a player’s size adjusted speed. This is more predictive for tight ends than wide receivers. This is because it signals us that a tight end offers pass-catching upside at the position. 

We will also be providing context about the types of roles different receivers and tight ends played in college to help us better evaluate the roles and landing spots that will maximize their chances of success in the NFL.

2025 WR Rankings

TIER 1

Player: Tetairoa McMillan

Rank: WR1

Writeup:

As of right now, Tet McMillan is the top WR going in almost every mock draft. On a largely unimpressive Arizona team, McMillan has recorded over 2,700 yards and 18 TDs across his last 2 seasons. He’s 6’4, 219 lbs and has one of the best production scores among eligible WR prospects. He is a great possession WR, while also possessing an excellent deep-ball skillset with strong size-adjusted speed.

He looks great analytically as well, but he does not compare to the #1 prospect like we have seen in recent years with players like Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, and Jamarr Chase in the last few draft classes.

His breakout age of 19.4 is good enough, ranking in the 79^th percentile. Many are comparing Tet to Drake London, which makes sense in terms of play style, athleticism, and production. But it’s worth calling out that London had a far superior breakout age and was a better prospect analytically. Depending on his landing spot, he’s got an excellent chance of being the top rookie WR taken in fantasy drafts. 

Top-3 player comparison: Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze, Mike Williams

Player: Travis Hunter

Rank: WR2

Writeup: 

Travis Hunter won the Heisman last season thanks to his stellar play as both a cornerback and as a wide receiver. He is very likely to be picked in the first 5 picks of this year’s draft. The general consensus right now seems to be that Hunter is more likely to play a full-time role on defense than offense at the NFL level – but that is not a guarantee and will likely depend on which team drafts him.

While Hunter is not expected to play substantial snap counts on offense on a regular basis in the NFL, make no mistake, he’s capable of producing as a WR if given the opportunity. With over 1,250 yards and 15 TDs in his final season, Hunter clearly has the ability to make big plays and is a real threat in the redzone.

Analytically, though, Hunter does not jump off the page when compared to historical round 1 wide receivers. His yards per team pass attempt and breakout age rank below average amongst receivers taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 2012. Playing on both sides of the ball likely did not help Hunter’s efficiency and production, but it’s fair to be concerned that a similar dynamic will play out at the NFL level. We may never really get the best from Hunter as a receiver because of his role as a corner.

Landing spot will be more critical for Hunter than for any other prospect, he has the widest range of outcomes as a fantasy WR in this class.

Top-3 comparisons: Travis Hunter, Travis Hunter, Travis Hunter. A unique 1-of-1 prospect, there really are no close analytical comps for Hunter.

TIER 2

Player: Emeka Egbuka

Rank: WR3

Writeup:

Ohio State WRs are typically a great bet when it comes to NFL prospects. Emeka Egbuka appears to be a WR who has an excellent chance of continuing the epic lineage. In his first season as a #1 WR for OSU, he recorded over 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. This was with some very stiff competition on his team, whether it was one of the 2 running backs that’ll be drafted (Judkins and Henderson), or the 2 other dynamic WRs that have the potential of being drafted in the upcoming years (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate). 

Egbuka looks great analytically, especially when you account for his strength of schedule and the talent he was competing with on his own team. He boasted a 2.7 best-season yards per team pass attempt as a sophomore in 2022, one of the best in the class. He’s not a huge WR with a 6’1, 202 lb frame, but he still has an elite 97^th percentile speed score and is more than capable of making big plays. Additionally, with a skillset to play outside or inside he has a great chance to contribute right away. 

Most mocks have him going in the first round as 3^rd or 4^th WR taken off the board. With the right landing spot and first round draft capital, Egbuka could jump into the top tier of WR’s in this class post-draft.

Top-3 comparisons: Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, Ricky Pearsall

Player: Luther Burden III

Rank: WR4

Writeup:

Luther Burden’s analytical profile is really strong – he is firmly in the top-5 receivers in this class ahead of the draft. Burden’s breakout age (18.7) ranks in the 94^th percentile of all prospects since 2012, and his best season in yards per team pass attempt is best in the class among the receivers expected to go in the first 5 rounds of the NFL draft.

Burden is one of the more polarizing WR’s in this year’s class because he received a lot of manufactured touches, and over 80% of his routes came from the slot. Burden also had just 1 really impressive season. His sophomore year was the year with the elite 3.21 yards per team pass attempt, but his freshman and Junior seasons were nothing to get overly excited about (under 2 yards per team pass attempt). There have been some big misses for slot-heavy college receivers with strong analytical profiles in the recent past such as Treylon Burks and Skyy Moore, but also some massive hits like A.J. Brown. The good news is Burden’s breakout age and athletic profile is more similar to Brown.

Burden may not be a proven deep threat, but his size-adjusted speed score ranks in the 88^th percentile. He is a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and he has a great chance to produce right away at the NFL level and for fantasy football managers. As of this writing, most mock drafts have Burden getting selected at the beginning of the 2^nd round as the 4^th or 5^th WR off the board. If that strong draft capital comes to fruition, and the landing spot aligns well with his slot skillset, Burden will likely be a strong value in all fantasy formats.

Statistical comps: DJ Moore, A.J. Brown, Skyy Moore

Player: Matthew Golden

Rank: WR5

Writeup:

Matthew Golden has some red flags analytically. His 20.1 breakout age ranks about average, and his best season yards per team pass attempt was just 1.82. This is nothing to get excited about, even when we adjust for the difficult strength of schedule at Texas.

One thing working in Golden’s favor is speed. His 4.29 40 yard dash time ranks in the 100^th percentile and his 109.7 speed score ranks in the 91st percentile. His performance at the combine should help his draft capital – most mock drafts have him going in the first round, a rarity for receivers who never had a 1,000  yard season in college. We saw a similar story play out with Ladd McConkey last year though, who was picked early in the 2^nd round of last year’s draft, despite a similar analytical profile to Golden and no college seasons over 1,000 yards. McConkey was, of course, a stud in his rookie season, so that is at least some reason for optimism with Golden.

Assuming he gets the round 1 draft capital many expect, Golden will be a high risk, high-reward player for fantasy thanks to his elite athleticism, but underwhelming college production.

Top-3 comparisons: Percy Harvin, Ladd McConkey, Curtis Samuel

TIER 3

See the rest of the rankings in the WalterPicks App…